Tuesday, November 13, 2012

MNCN BOW At 2275


MNCN pada penutupan hari Senin tanggal 12 November 2012 ditutup 2400 (-75 point). Saham ini sejak awal November hingga sekarang terus menerus ditekan, dimana kemungkinan ini merupakan aksi profit taking. Untuk rekomendasi saham ini layak untuk dikoleksi pada level 2275 yang merupakan level support kuat dia.

Dan apabila jebol level 2275 maka lakukan cut loss apabila menembus level 2200

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Friday, November 9, 2012

KAEF membentuk Pola Ascending Triangle


KAEF pada perdagangan hari Kamis tanggal 08 November 2012 ditutup 490 (0 point), dan pada 02 hari terakhir  ada akumulasi beli (lihat pada chart diatas). Jika hendak beli dapat dilakukan pada kisaran harga 480-490

Dan Apabila break down, maka lakukan cut loss di 465

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PWON BOW at 225


PWON pada perdagangan hari Kamis tanggal 08 November 2012 ditutup melemah menjadi 235 (-5 point), akan tetapi sempat turun ke 225 dimana level tersebut merupakan level supportnya.

Untuk saham ini jika hendak diambil dapat ditunggu di 225 dan apabila break down maka lakukan cut loss di 215, dimana level support selanjutnya di 175

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Monday, November 5, 2012

IHSG Akan Menuju Kemana?


IHSG pada penutupan hari Jumat tanggal 02 November 2012, ditutup menguat tipis. Akan tetapi kalau dilihat dari volume transaksi dimana asing masih melakukan proses selling, maka dimungkinkan minggu ini akan berlanjut dengan target terdekat IHSG berhenti di kisaran 4295 (Support I) karena disitu terdapat gap yang harus ditutup.

Dan apabila jebol maka IHSG akan melanjutkan penurunan ke kisaran 4250 (Support II). Jika IHSG berhasil rebound, maka IHSG sendiri saya prediksi akan menuju target di 4450. Jadi apakah itu tercapai atau tidak, dimana akhir tahun tinggal menghitung hari saja? let's wee see.

Friday, November 2, 2012

BBRI BOW at 6950


BBRI pada penutupan hari Kamis tanggal 01 November 2012 ditutup 7200 (-200 point). BBRI pada 02 hari terakhir mengalami tekanan jual yang sangat kuat, hal ini tercermin dari jumlah volume transaksi yang cukup besar. Untuk hal ini, maka rekomendasi belilah pada harga BOW yakni di 6950 (S1). dan apabila turun terus maka lakukan stop loss di 6850.

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INDF Saatnya Rebound


INDF penutupan perdagangan hari Kamis 01 November 2012 ditutup 5700 (0 point). Apabila dilihat dari chart bahwa INDF telah 08 hari mengalami downtrend dan kemarin ada upaya reversal, maka saham ini dapat untuk dimiliki dengan entry point di 5700 (Support I) dengan target terdekat R1 di 5850

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Monday, October 15, 2012

JPFA BOW At 4750


JPFA pada penutupan hari Jumat tanggal 12 Oktober 2012 di 4875 (0 point). JPFA secara teknikal telah keluar dari posisi down trend, untuk target sendiri JPFA memiliki fair value di kisaran harga 5600. Maka apabila mau masuk bisa tunggu di 4750 (S1). untuk resisten 1 di 5050 dan resisten 2 di 5550

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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Cara Gampang Gandakan Uang Ala Warren Buffett


JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Warren Edward Buffett dikenal sebagai salah satu orang terkaya di dunia melalui kecerdikannya berinvestasi. Apa saja yang dilakukannya untuk menggandakan kekayaan tersebut?
Pengajar investasi dan Ketua Departemen Keuangan di Prasetya Mulia Business School Lukas Setia Atmaja menjelaskan, Warren Buffett bisa dijadikan contoh khususnya bagi masyarakat yang ingin berinvestasi. "Dia selalu bisa menggandakan uangnya dengan cara membeli saham yang bagus, tapi murah. Lalu saham tersebut dibiarkannya bertahun-tahun," ungkap Lukas saat peluncuran buku "Just Duitto" di acara Indonesia Financial Expo and Forum di Jakarta Convention Center, Minggu (7/10/2012).
Menurut Lukas, masyarakat yang ingin berinvestasi di pasar saham juga harus memperhatikan kriteria-kriterianya. Ada lima kriteria sebelum seseorang bisa memutuskan untuk membeli saham yang bagus tersebut.
Pertama, perusahaan tersebut memiliki manajemen yang bagus baik dalam bisnis maupun kinerjanya. Kedua, sektor bisnis dari perusahaan tersebut cukup cemerlang misalnya sektor batubara, kelapa sawit dan sebagainya. Ketiga, perusahaan tersebut mampu untung besar. Keempat, perusahaan tersebut terus tumbuh, setiap tahun ekspansi bisnis. Kelima, valuasi harga sahamnya wajar.
"Jika perusahaan tersebut memiliki lima kriteria itu, maka segera beli sahamnya. Asal harganya wajar," katanya.
Selain itu, Lukas juga mengutip delapan prinsip investasi ala Warren BUffett. Melalui prinsip tersebut, masyarakat bisa mengetahui cara orang terkaya di dunia itu mengelola uangnya. Berikut delapan prinsip investasi ala Warren Buffett:
1. Investasi segera, jangan spekulasi sebelum memulai investasi, pastikan kita menganalisis produk investasi apa saja yang memberikan imbal hasil (yield) yang baik. Di sini, jangan tergoda dengan yieldyang signifikan, misalnya tergoda yield 200 persen per tahun. Namun yang penting adalah uang kita aman, bukannya menyusut.
2. Investasi tidak perlu banyak. Seorang Warren Buffett hanya memiliki portofolio sekitar 30 jenis saham hingga saat ini. Namun dia menjadi salah satu orang terkaya di dunia, bahkan pernah menjadi nomor satu menurut majalah Forbes pada 2010.
3. Bukan beli sahamnya tapi bisnisnya. Meski kita membeli saham pada sebuah perusahaan, bukan berarti kita punya saham di situ saja. Namun itu berarti bahwa kita menjadi salah satu pemilik dari perusahaan yang sahamnya kita beli itu, bahkan meski hanya membeli 1 lot saham (500 lembar saham) saja.
4. Jangan utang untuk beli saham. Jangan membeli saham memakai uang panas. Studi membuktikan bahwa orang yang suka berutang untuk membeli saham, cenderung sebagai spekulan. Sehingga dia akan selalu tergoda untuk menjual saham ketika naik sedikit untuk mendapatkan untung. Padahal investor seperti Warren Buffett merupakan investor jangka panjang. Lebih baik membeli satu lot saham, namun itu secara terus menerus dan bisa dibeli dengan uang sendiri. Khususnya dengan seiring kenaikan pendapatan kita maka investasi untuk membeli saham juga harus ditingkatkan.
Sebagai contoh, investasi di saham akan memberikan yield hingga 30-40 persen dalam kurun 5 tahun terakhir. Padahal investasi di produk lain justru hanya memberikan yield di bawah itu.
5. Alokasikan uang secara efisien. Jika Anda memiliki saham yang kurang berprospek bagus, maka segera jual saham tersebut dan investasikan ke saham lain yang lebih menguntungkan.
6. Berpikirlah independen. Meski Warren Buffett menjadi salah satu orang terkaya dunia, tapi gaya hidupnya justru sederhana. Hingga umurnya mencapai 82 tahun kini, dia tetap tinggal di Omaha, Nebraska, sekitar 1.800 km dari New York. Apa alasannya?
Dia ingin jauh dari prediksi analis, khususnya yang bisa menjatuhkan saham yang dimilikinya. Dia selalu percaya diri terhadap saham yang telah dibeli, meski analis memprediksi saham tersebut akan anjlok. Rumahnya pun juga sederhana di Omaha. Bahkan istrinya sampai tidak betah hidup dengan Buffett (karena dianggap terlalu sederhana, meski dia kaya raya) dan pindah ke San Fransisco. Makanannya pun cuma sekadar junk food dan minuman Cola-cola. Kebetulan dia memfavoritkan saham Cola-cola yang juga dibelinya sehingga dia setiap hari minum minuman bersoda itu.
7. Terbuka. Warren Buffett memiliki pikiran terbuka khususnya dalam menerima pandangan orang lain. Namun ini bukan terkait prediksi saham yang telah dibelinya. Pandangan terbuka ini dilakukan saat Warren Buffet tidak mau membeli saham-saham perusahaan IT (information technology). Baginya, saham itu tidak menguntungkan. Dia juga pernah menolak untuk membeli saham Facebook karena ternyata sampai sekarang sahamnya juga terus terpuruk. Dia juga tidak mau membeli perusahaan dotcom seperti Google, Yahoo dan sebagainya. Meski saham tersebut naik turun, portofolio investasinya selamat karena tidak ada satu sahampun dari jenis perusahaan IT.
Saat krisis lalu, saham dotcom ini anjlok signifikan. Namun ternyata, Buffett pun mempertimbangkan untuk membeli saham IBM (perusahaan komputer di Amerika Serikat). Padahal dia dulu benci sekali dengan saham perusahaan IT.
8. Berbagi. Ini yang paling sulit ditiru. Buffett dianggap sebagai salah satu orang terkaya. Namun dia juga terus mendermakan kekayaannya ke pihak lain. Contohnya dia baru saja mendermakan 31 miliar dollar AS ke yayasan milik Bill Gates. Anaknya justru hanya diberikan satu portofolio saham yang dimilikinya. Anehnya, jumlah kekayaan yang dibagikan ke orang lain itu melebihi jumlah kekayaan yang dibagikan ke anak cucunya.
"Lantas apa guna dia mengumpulkan banyak saham, kaya raya lalu memberikannya ke orang lain yang membutuhkan? Ya itu memang hobinya. Baginya, uang bukan segala-galanya. Intinya jangan serakah dalam berinvestasi. Jadilah investor jangka panjang dan nikmatilah imbal hasil saham itu secukupnya. Sisanya berikan ke orang lain yang membutuhkan," kata Lukas.
Prinsip-prinsip ala Warren Buffett tersebut bisa diketahui secara mendalam dalam buku "Just Duitto" yang ditulis oleh Lukas Setia Atmaja dan kartunis Thomdean. Buku tersebut diterbitkan oleh Kontan Publishing (Kelompok Kompas Gramedia) yang mengupas investasi secara gampang dan ringan dalam bentuk kartun.
"Ini menjadi buku alternatif, khususnya bagi masyarakat yang ingin berinvestasi namun malas membaca buku investasi yang cenderung berat," katanya.

Monday, October 8, 2012

A Look Into Warren Buffett’s Life and His 8 Investment Principles


This past weekend the National Geographic channel had a special television episode dedicated to Warren Buffet’s life and the investment strategies that have made him one of the richest men in the world.
The segment was called, Warren Buffet – The Modern Midas. I would suggest recording this episode and taking notes (I am sure it will be aired again). What works for Buffet has worked for others and he’ll tell you how to repeat his results.

If you don’t have cable or won’t be able to record the program then keep reading. In the following paragraphs I will give you the highlights from my notes. I’ll tell you why Warren is different, how he runs his business and his 8 investment principles he and his right hand man Charlie Munger follow religiously.

Warrens Simple Life

Warren Buffet lives a simple life 1200 miles west of Wall Street in Omaha, Nebraska. Omaha’s population of 500,000 pales in comparison to the crowded streets of New York and Wall Street.
Buffet’s company, Berkshire Hathaway is valued at $150+ Billion! Company world headquarters are in Omaha and have been there since January 1, 1962.  Berkshire Hathaway is run by a couple handfuls of employees at company headquarters. Buffet has two secretaries, two accountants, one bond trader, and a personal assistant who screens his phone calls.
Buffet lives a very frugal life. He doesn’t own the biggest house on he block and he doesn’t own multiple properties.
“How could I improve my life owning 10 houses around the globe?” ~ Warren Buffett
He lives in a modest home that he bought for $31K over 50 years ago.
He also buys hail-damaged cars to get a good bargain and drives them until his daughter is too embarrassed to be seen with him.
Buffet lives a slow paced life and that’s how he has made his money. Buffett doesn’t make quick decisions every minute like those who follow the stock market closely.

Four Point Potential Investment Checklist

Charlie Munger, who is Buffet’s right hand man, has established a 4 point checklist with Buffett to determine if a company is worth buying into or not.
  1. Deal in things you have a capability of understanding
  2. Must have intrinsic characteristics that gives a competitive advantage
  3. Management in place with lots of integrity and talent
  4. A price that makes sense
Using this 4 point checklist Buffett heavily invested in Coke several years ago and his investment quadrupled. Berkshire Hathaway still owns $10 billion in Coke stock today.

Buffett’s 8 Rules of Investing

Here are Buffett’s 8 rules of investing, which he shared on the television special. Some of the rules he elaborated on quite a bit. Then there were other rules where he simply shared one sentence. Either way, I think you will appreciate his sensible point of view.

Rule #1: Invest…don’t speculate

Don’t focus on the fluctuating price of a company like Wall Street does. Instead focus on the planned outcome from the business. Where is the business headed?
“I think buying a stock and hoping it goes up the next day is pure speculation.” ~ Warren Buffett

Rule #2: You don’t have to diversify

“If somebody owns fifty stocks, can they really like the one they ranked 50 as well as the one they ranked as one? Can they know it as well? I don’t think so.”

Rule #3: Don’t just buy shares, be a business owner

Buffett does most of his research on the company; it’s growth, management, and values more so than it’s financial statements.
Some companies Buffett bought out he didn’t even do financial audits on simply because he trusted the business owner.
Know the company you want to invest in well and know where they are going.

Rule #4: Allocate capital efficiently

Buffett is smooth with all the company managers that Berkshire Hathaway owns and that affords him the ability to use profits from one company to invest in another without managers fusing at him.
He also learned to use capital efficiently when he started buying up insurance companies. Buffett and Munger saw an opportunity to use insurance float.
Insurance companies customers pay premiums upfront, which creates an enormous cash flow that Buffett invests. In other words, insurance float allows Buffett to invest without barrowing or leveraging his money like Wall Street, which leads to his next rule…

Rule #5: Don’t get into debt

Enough said.

Rule #6: Think Independently

Tune out the hype on Wall Street and avoid jumping on bandwagons.
“You have to think for yourself.” ~ Warren Buffet

Rule #7: Break your own rules

Be prepared to break your own rules. Adapt and conquer.

Rule #8: Give it away

Buffett has committed to giving away his wealth to the tune of $31 billion. This money will go the Bill Gate’s foundation. Gate’s who is good friends with Buffett has given away many millions and will continue to give away more and more.
Buffet believes that he is good at making money and there are other people that are better at giving it away than himself.
As you think about your investments and achieving financial freedom try to think like Buffett. Are you frugal? Do you live a simple life below your means? Do you think for yourself or do you follow the crowd?
Do you think Buffett’s investment principles and frugal life choices are still applicable today?
Good luck :)

Friday, October 5, 2012

BSDE BOW at 1100


BSDE pada penutupan hari Kamis tanggal 04 Oktober 2012 di 1130 (turun 20 point). Untuk saat ini BSDE dilihat dalam posisi break up setelah mengalami downtrend selama hampir04 bulan.

Untuk rekomendasi saham ini boleh di beli di level 1100 (S1) dan apabila melewati 1160 (R1) boleh langsung diambil dengan target ke 1200 (R2)

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Thursday, September 27, 2012

KAEF Membentuk Pola Ascending Triangle


KAEF pada penutupan hari Rabu tanggal 26 September 2012 di harga 490 (turun 10 point). Kalau dilihat secara teknikal, KAEF sedang membentuk pola Ascending Triangle dimana batas atasnya ada di 550 (R1). dan Supportnya ada di 485.

KAEF berdasarkan berita akan melakukan Right Issue dan masih dalam proses perundingan dengan pihak parlemen (DPR).

Rekomendasi Buy On Weakness at 485 or buy if break 550 with high volume

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Wednesday, September 26, 2012

ADRO Membentuk Pola Double Bottom


ADRO pada penutupan hari Selasa Tanggal 25 September 2012 tutup di harga 1500 (naik 30 point). Kalau dilihat dari chart selama 03 bulan, ADRO telah membentuk pola Double Bottom dimana apabila break up (R1 1610) maka saham ini dipastikan akan melanjutkan target ke 1900 (R3). Untuk level support berada di 1330 (S1), dan apabila break down (jebol 1330) segera cut loss.

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Tuesday, September 11, 2012

GIAA Bertahan di Fibo 50%


GIAA pada penutupan hari Senin tanggal 10 September 2012 di 590. GIAA telah 04 hari bertahan di area 580 - 600 (fibo 50%) dan telah hampir 02 bulan mengalami penurunan.

Kalau dilihat GIAA bisa turun lagi ke 540 (S2) yakni fibo 38,2 % ataupun bisa langsung rebound dengan target 780 (R1) dan apabila breakup akan lanjut ke 1020 (R2).

Buy if break with high volume dengan target terdekat 630

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Thursday, September 6, 2012

Saham - Saham Yang Layak dikoleksi BOW

IHSG pada bulan Agustus memberi sinyal sideways, dimana juga dari belum ada berita berita positif baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri yang mampu mengangkat IHSG kembali ke trend bullish.

Untuk saat ini saya hanya memberikan rekomendasi BOW untuk beberapa saham pilihan saya. Dan apabila dipegang, langsung dijual apabila sudah menguntungkan.

1.   AISA - 610
2.   CPIN - 2500
3.   JPFA - 4000
4.   JSMR - 5450
5.   INTP - 18200
6.   KAEF - 405
7.   PGAS - 3525
8.   SMCB - 2550
9.   MAPI - 5900
10. SMGR - 11100
11. MAIN - 1210
12. ASRI - 405

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Sunday, August 26, 2012

CMNP Mengakhiri Downtrend


CMNP setelah 02 bulan mengalami fase bearish, maka mulai minggu lalu mencoba kembali ke fase bullish. pada penutupan hari Jumat tanggal 24 Agustus 2012, CMNP cukup bertahan di area Support 1 yakni 2050. Semoga minggu depan kembali melanjutkan fase bullishnya dengan target di R1 yakni 2175 dan R2 2300.

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ASGR Sideways Menguat

ASGR sebagai salah satu anak perusahaan Asra memiliki kecendrungan tiap tahun terus tumbuh walau perlahan. Pada penutupan hari jumat tanggal 24 Agustus 2012 ASGR berada di 1320 (naik 10 point), ASGR telah 02 bulan ini sideways dengan kecendrungan menguat. Dimana ASGR cukup bertahan di area Support 1 1290 dan berusaha menyentuh level Resistance 1 di 1380.

Rekomendasi BOW at 1290 or buy if break 1380 with high volume

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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

PGAS Akan Turun Dulu


Setelah beberapa hari ini PGAS mencoba untuk melewati level 3825, maka pada penutupan hari Selasa tanggal 07 Agustus 2012 ditutup turun menjadi 3725 (-50). Dan kemungkinan saham ini akan turun dulu dengan target di 3625 (S1) dan apabila makin turun maka lakukan sell on strength dengan level selanjutnya di 3425 (S2)

Untuk Resisten 1 di 3825 dan Resisten 2 di 4150

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AISA Tertahan Di Area Support

AISA pada penutupan hari Selasa tanggal 07 Agustus 2012 ditutup di 670 (Support I) dan telah 04 hari tertahan di area tersebut. Ada kemungkinan saham ini sudah cukup tertahan dan bisa jadi dalam minggu ini akan kembali dalam trend naiknya dengan target di 770 (R1) dan apabila terlewati maka target selanjutnya di 940 (R2).

Apabila level 670 jebol, maka bersiap - siap untuk melakukan sell on strength dengan target selanjutnya di 570 (S2)

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Thursday, August 2, 2012

Garuda Indonesia (GIAA IJ, BUY) Soaring to new heights


We initiate coverage on GIAA, Indonesia's state-owned airlines company  with a BUY recommendation. We like the company for several reasons. First, GIAA is making efforts to maintain its growth momentum through effective strategic positioning and global linking by joining Sky Team. Secondly, GIAA's revenues performance is steadily improving. And thirdly, its newly-separated entity (Citilink) shall provide a stable revenues stream to GIAA. We value the company at Rp900/share, implying 2012-13F Adj. EV/EBITDAR of 5.6-4.7x. GIAA's shares currently trade at 5.0x Adj. EV/EBITDAR.

Maintaining its Growth Momentum

Thanks to strong economic growth in Indonesia, the overall number of domestic budget and business travelers has grown by 4- year CAGR 11% while the figure for international travelers is 13%. Focusing on the full service (FSC) market, GIAA is adopting effective strategies such as positioning itself in the high density and low yield market via Citilink, as well as serving the low density and high yield market through its new CRJ 1000 NG aircraft. In our view, this should allow GIAA to capture higher market share and allow the company to leverage on higher capacity. For the international market, more Boeing 777 aircraft are expected to be delivered by FY13 in order to offer direct international flights. Taking everything into consideration, consolidated Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) is estimated to reach 36,274 mn km and 44,186 mn km in FY12-13. Furthermore, GIAA will also seek to maintain its growth momentum by joining Sky Team by FY14.

Healthy Revenues Growth

The government has implemented price capping since FY10 to protect public interests in domestic air transport. The impact, however, for GIAA is not significant and the margin per ASK has still improved even with higher jet fuel prices paid. Encouragingly, yields have expanded even with a higher passenger load factor. The EBITDAR has grown steadily. In FY11, the operating profits reached US$115 million after a loss of around US$7 million in FY10. Going forward, we expect revenues to grow further. This should help lift operating profits to around US$ 220 million in FY12 and US$ 240 million in FY13, in our estimates.

Spreading Its Citilink Wings

Citilink is now an independent entity following the acceptance of the Air Operation Certificate (AOC) given by the Ministry of Transportation on 5 July 2012. The brand will serve the segmented LCC market with 8 daily routes from the airline's hubs to Batam, Banjarmasin, Denpasar, Balikpapan, Medan and Makasar. Going forward, Citilink is expected to provide a stable revenues stream to GIAA with the introduction of A320-200 using the LCC configuration supported by GIAA's long-standing experience in the airlines sector. This will help Citilink to post higher passenger revenues, rising an estimated CAGR 96% over 2 years, in our view.

ASGR Masih Berpeluang Menguat

ASGR penutupan hari Rabu 01 Agustus 2012 ditutup di 1310 (turun 10 poin). kalau dilihat dengan menggunakan fibonanci, maka ASGR lagi sideways antara titik 61,8% - 100%.

Jika hendak melakukan Buy dapat dilakukan di 1260 (S1) dan jika mau menunggu dapat masuk apabila telah melewati 1380 (R1) dengan target 1600 (R2). Cut loss apabila break melewati 1110 (S2)

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Thursday, July 26, 2012

JSMR Teknikal View


JSMR pada penutupan hari Rabu ditutup di 5700. Kalau dilihat dari fibonanci, maka JSMR tertahan di 5650 yang merupakan titik support 1, dan apabila break maka ke S2 di 5400. Dan untuk titik R1 ada di 5950 dan R2 6050

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Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ, BUY) 1H12 traffic volume


Robust traffic

Traffic volume reached 100.9mn vehicles in June 2012. This translates into 3.4mn vehicles per day (+2.5% mom). Compared to May 2012, the traffic volume in June 2012 was 0.8% mom lower as a result of fewer operating days. All in all, we continue to believe that the traffic volume shall improve, unaffected by the weaker global economic conditions. Cumulatively, traffic volume reached 583.0mn vehicles in 1H12, or up 11.7% yoy, and translating into 3.2mn cars per day. The 1H12 traffic volume is 52.1% of our full-year forecast. For 2H12, traffic volumes may be lower on the back of the one-week Lebaran holidays which will reduce traffic on the inner-city toll road. Hopefully, however, this will be somewhat offset by increased traffic on toll-roads out of Jakarta.

BORR records strong growth

The Bogor Ring Road (BORR) is a great success story despite the complexities of developing the second stage. Daily traffic on BORR has already reached almost 30,000 vehicles a day, above the threshold volume to decide whether to go ahead with the second stage. In two and a half years, traffic volume has surged a rapid 70% CAGR, justifying the development of the second stage. Nonetheless, there are some issues to face since development of the second stage shall require good coordination with the local government. For the second stage development which is expected to cost Rp340.8bn and take 17 months to complete, JSMR has appointed WIKA as the main contractor. Construction begins this month.

Eyeing the Batang Semarang toll road section

The concession holder of the Batang Semarang toll road section, PT Marga Setiapuritama, has been warned by the toll road authority body to seek new investors after Bakrie Toll Road withdrew from the project. Jasa Marga has expressed interest in the section since it will connect to its current Semarang Solo toll road. However, the company has not disclosed information on whether it plans any further action. In our view, Jasa Marga has the financial capacity to participate in this project. Nonetheless, the financial feasibility of the project will be the main issue as the investment cost has ballooned to Rp7.2tn from Rp3.6tn previously. This section is 75km long and is part of the Trans Java Toll road.

Maintain BUY

Jasa Marga's traffic volume remains strong and unaffected by the global economic weakness. Going forward, the prospects for this business look good overall. Maintain BUY on the stock with a Target Price of Rp6,100.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

INDF Koreksi Terlebih Dahulu


INDF pada hari Selasa tanggal 17 Juli 2012 ditutup di 5400 (turun 100) dari penutupan Senin. dilihat dari chart sepertinya INDF akan koreksi terlebih dahulu sebelum melanjutkan kenaikkan. Apabila hendak membeli alangkah baiknya menunggu di S1 5200. Untuk R1 adalah 5650 dan apabila break maka INDF akan melanjutkan pergerakkan dengan target R2 6400

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Monday, July 16, 2012

PGAS Akan Koreksi Sebentar Atau Break?


PGAS hari Senin tanggal 16 Juli 2012 ditutup 3700 (sama dengan hari jumat). Kalau dilihat dari pola yang terjadi PGAS kesulitan menembus 3725 (R1) jadi PGAS ada kemungkinan koreksi terlebih dahulu dengan target S1 3625 dan S2 3550.

Akan tetapi bila PGAS besok berhasil menjebol (break) R1 3725 dengan volume yang tinggi, maka PGAS dapat dikoleksi dengan target selanjutnya di R2 3975.

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ISAT Technical Update


ISAT hari Senin tanggal 16 Juli 2012 ditutup 4400 turun 25 point dari penutupan hari Jumat kemarin. Hari ini ISAT telah menjebol resistance di 4475, akan tetapi karena terjadi aksi profit taking maka ISAT malah ditutup turun. Apabila dilihat dari pola chart diatas, ISAT membentuk pola Head n Shoulder.

Rekomendasi Buy jika break 4475 dengan volume tinggi dengan R1 5150 dan R2 5550. jika melihat chart hari ini ISAT bisa dikoleksi di S1 4225

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Indosat (ISAT; BUY) New ammunition


New board member appointed

Indosat’s shareholders have appointed a new board member, Erik Meijer, as Commercial Director, effective as of June 2012. Erik Meijer has gained extensive experience in the industry with incumbent Telkomsel and the so-called challenger Bakrie Telecom with notable success. With this appointment, Indosat should be better able to focus on its commercial strategy and execution speed. Nonetheless, Indonesia remains a complex market with intense competition. As such, it is vital that Indosat develops a customized strategy from cluster to cluster without adversely affecting the company’s grand strategy. The ultimate goal should be to gain market share by taking effective and timely marketing initiatives. The past couple of quarters have been difficult for Indosat and the company has struggled to challenge its competitors. Yet with the new commercial director now appointed, we expect positive results to filter through to the financials in 2H12.

No 3G spectrum issue

The Ministry of Communications and Information will soon auction another two slots (5 Mhz each) in the 3G spectrum. With the increasing growth in data, this spectrum has greater strategic importance for future business expansion. Nonetheless, Indosat has not indicated much interest in the auction since it feels it has sufficient spectrum to keep up with the data demand growth. Its plans are to optimize usage of the 900Mhz frequency since a new technology has been implemented to utilize 900Mhz for 3G. Indosat owns 2 blocks (10Mhz) in the 900Mhz frequency, or more than its main rivals Telkomsel (7.5Mhz) and XL (7.5Mhz). With slots in the spectrum becoming increasingly scarce, there is less chance of a price war in data, in our view. Nonetheless, since investment costs are tending to drop, operators need to come up with innovative offers that strike the right balance between quality and pricing.

Slim chance of M&A

Indonesia’s telecommunications market is a bit overcrowded with 10 operators. Some consolidation has taken place among the small players, most notably between Mobile 8 and Smart and between Bakrie Telecom and Sampoerna Telecom. However, Indosat has indicated that it is unlikely to seek any M&A opportunities. Note that the main motive for incumbents to seek M&A opportunities with smaller players is to acquire more spectrum. However, in Indosat’s case, the company feels that it has sufficient spectrum at the current time. Other assets such as customers and networks would be less valuable for the incumbents. As such, consolidation is more likely to take place among the smaller players. Quite simply, if Indosat can improve its service quality and come up with more attractive offers, then it stands to gain when unsatisfied subscribers using the services of smaller players decide to switch to other operators.

Upgrade to BUY

We upgrade our recommendation to BUY with a Target Price of Rp4,950, implying PER FY12-13 of 19.9-14.4x and EV/EBITDA FY12-13 of 4.3-3.7x, reflecting: 1) the expectation of an improved commercial strategy with the appointment of Erik Meijer and 2) the fact that the stock price has corrected significantly. We expect an improvement in earnings entering 2H12.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Selamat Sempurna (SMSM : BUY) Completely integrated


Sense of utilization

We visited SMSM main manufacturing filter factories in Tangerang, West Java, where it lies on vast 40ha manufacturing complex within the 75ha area owned by its holding company, the ADR Group. SMSM has six factories in total, to support its manufacturing activities from producing key parts from its raw materials, the assembly line, till the packaging and completed with 15,000m2 warehouse area. The filter factory is fully operated as it labors around 2,000 people, divided into 2-3 shifts per day with some machines which fully operated for 24-hours. To date, filter sales contributes up to 70% of SMSM's revenue, has a maximum capacity of 96mn units per annum and has product variations up to 5,000 types. In 2012, we believe the company can utilize its filter production up to 65% of its total capacity.

The Kaizen approach to quality

Most of SMSM's main raw materials are imported products, such as papers for filters came from distributor in Korea, and the steel plates also came from Posco Korea. The company maintained its supplies by ordered in 3-months inventory and buy at spot price. From its experience, management had chosen to use imported paper and steel plate because it has better quality and durability compared to local producers. SMSM main sales destination to overseas countries has imposed the company to produce qualified products that should meet the international minimum requirements. In addition, SMSM also has the laboratory to do quality assessment and maintained the quality of its products, while at the same time the laboratory also has been use to examine defect items which then allows the company to take further actions to continuously improve its product quality.

Vertically integrated within the group

SMSM manufacturing process showed remarkable vertical integration within the ADR Group which allows the company to capture the margins from various parts of value chain process as well as to maintain the supply level of raw materials. Vertical integration gives room for the company to save in transport costs, experience faster turnover, and to have flexibility in adjusting to changes in product specifications. Furthermore, with the new acquisition of sister company, PT Hydraxle Perkasa (HP), SMSM can have a steady supply of customized steel plates along with the custom molds produced in HP which enables SMSM to sustain as one of the company that have comprehensive range of product variations, especially in filter products.

Maintained BUY

In addition to the strong track record of revenue and dividend growth plus the robust financials, we see SMSM also demonstrate solid competence in vertically-integrated manufacturing. We believe the company still on its track to capture the growth opportunity in filters and radiators market demand. Our Target Price of Rp2,506 implies PER FY12-13 of 15.0-13.3x and currently trades at PER FY12-13 of 11.9-10.3x, lower compared with the 12.9-10.6x peer averages. Remain attractive, BUY maintained.

AKRA BOW

AKRA pada penutupan Rabu 11 Juli 2012 ditutup di 3775 yang merupakan level support I-nya dan apabila hari ini tidak terjadi rebound maka bisa dilakukan BOW di level support II (3650)

Untuk resistance I di 3900 dan resistance II di 4150

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Wednesday, July 11, 2012

KAEF sudah di titik fibo 61,8%


KAEF pada penutupan hari selasa tanggal 03 Juli 2012 di harga 510, dimana harga ini merupakan level support I dan juga titik fibo 61,8% sehingga kemungkinan hari ini akan mengalami teknikal rebound dengan target di  550 (resistance I) dan apabila jebol akan menuju resistance II di 620

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Friday, July 6, 2012

Kalbe Farma (KLBF) The Milky deal

New JV: Kalbe Milko Indonesia 

Following the acquisition of Hale International, Kalbe continues to aggressively expand its business. The company has signed agreement with Milko Beverage Industry (MBI) to set a JV company, called Kalbe Milko Indonesia in which Kalbe will hold 51% ownership. Kalbe will invest up to Rp150bn on the new company. Our conversation with the management revealed that the company expects to start building the facility in 4Q this year in order to commence operation at end of 2013 or at the beginning of 2014. The new facility will be located in Sukabumi, near the source of milk. From the new JV, Kalbe expects to enter the liquid milk segment using the expertise from MBI. 

Milk contributes around 22% to Kalbe's revenues 

Currently, milk contributes around 22% to the company's total revenues. Hence, almost all of Kalbe's milk products are powder milk. Therefore, Kalbe intends to expand its Consumer Health and Nutritionals business with more prospective outlook in the future. Having approximately around Rp2tr net cash, Kalbe is focusing to acquire another 3 or 4 companies within those two segments. At the moment, Kalbe has two dairy liquid products: ready to drink Prenagen and Nutrive Benecol, contribution of which are still very low to the company's total revenues. The company's new JV is expected to strengthen its nutritionals units going forward. 

Prospective milk industry outlook 

According to Food & Agriculture policy Research Institute, average milk consumption in Indonesia has the highest growth amongst ASEAN countries in 2006 - 2010 with CAGR of around 2.9% whereas Thailand 2.4%, Vietnam 2.3%, Philippines 1.6% and Malaysia -3.6%. The Agriculture Minister also said that average milk consumption in Indonesia has shown significant improvement since 2008, from 7.7lt per capita to 11.09lt per capita in 2010 or about half of the average milk consumption in Malaysia. Hence, domestic national milk production accounts for only around 30% of the total milk needs in Indonesia. 

Maintain HOLD with a TP of Rp4,050 

We like the company's recent movement in expanding its business especially on the Consumer Health and Nutritionals division which have more rooms to expand. Kalbe's recent acquisition on Hale International will strengthen its Consumer Health division whereas the new JV company would allow the company to tap into liquid milk industry where the company has no experience at the moment. The counter is currently trading at 2012F P/E multiple of 22.8x. Maintain Hold

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

United Tractors (UNTR) A challenging year

FY12 sales volume forecast lowered to 9,000 units

Sales of Komatsu rebounded 3% mom to 773 units in May 2012. By sector, the mining accounted for 62% of the total sales volume, followed by the agro (18%), the construction (13%) and the forestry (7%). Komatsu's market share, however, was lower than in 2011 (45% in 5M12 vs 49% in FY11). This owed to the fierce competition in the heavy equipment industry, especially the 20-ton class excavator segment (40% of heavy equipment sales volume and 20% of heavy equipment sales value). On account of this stiff competition, we trim our FY12-13 sales volume forecasts by 5.3-9.6% to 9,000-9,450 units. We feel more comfortable with these numbers, especially since the highest monthly sales so far this year is the 821 units recorded in March. Moreover, the sales volume in the last month of the year, December, is typically low. At the same time, we also foresee lower margins as UT battles the competition through its promotional and financing schemes, although a larger contribution from after-sales services should help support its margins. 

Pama Production strong and expected to be higher in 2H

Pama's mining activities were strong in May, supported by better weather and a stable stripping ratio of 9.2x. Coal production and overburden removal in 5M12 were up by 14.7% and 16.2% yoy, respectively, at 37.4mn tons and 343.1mn bcm (+6% mom and +6% mom, respectively, for May). These figures are in line with our full year estimates of 96mn tons and 887mn bcm, given that 2H production is typically higher than 1H production.

Strong May coal sales volume of 650k tons (+53% mom, +75% yoy)

Coal sales volume surged 53% mom to 650k tons in May 2012, supported by the better weather (at the PNM and TTA coal mines only). YTD sales reached 2.6mn tons (+45.4% yoy), or 40% of our full year forecast of 6.5mn tons. Note that PNM's production surged 156.4% mom in May as UT renewed the contract last month adopting 100% index based pricing. Going forward, we expect a larger contribution from the new coal mines - with production expected to start mid-2012 - to boost the company's coal mining activities.

Maintain BUY, lower TP of Rp 27,300

UNTR's share price has fallen 21% over the past month. Besides the market correction this also reflects weaker sales volume in April and lower market share due to an influx of Chinese-made small-medium sized equipment exacerbated by the tough competition posed by the Hitachi and Kobelco brands. We lower our TP to Rp 27,300, as we reduce our Komatsu sales volume forecast and our long term growth rate to 2% to reflect the stiffer competition and regulatory risk whilst also adjusting for higher COGS in the coal mining division. Our new TP implies FY12-13F PE of 16.6-14.5x and FY12-13F EV/EBITDA of 8.3-7.4x. We believe our valuation is justified by the improving sales volume, upside potential for Pama's production, in addition to growing coal sales volume despite the softening coal prices which are already priced into our model. Currently the shares trade at FY12 PE of 12.9x, or similar to the market valuation. For the stock to reach our TP, the share price must be supported by positive market sentiment.

Jasa Marga (JSMR) May traffic volume

No downturn in traffic 

The toll road network seems busier than ever with total monthly traffic at an all-time high of 101mn vehicles in May 2012 (+5.9% mom, +18.6% yoy). The number is very encouraging as it indicates no slowdown in domestic economy activity. Furthermore, the growth is evenly spread among all sections, suggesting that the economic gains are widespread. Cumulatively, up to May 2012, traffic reached 482.2mn vehicles (+11.8% yoy), translating to almost 4.0 mn vehicles per day. 

Good growth from the newer sections 

The contribution from the newer sections will be important as they carry higher average tariffs per km compared to the older sections. The tariff difference per km could be almost double. Nonetheless, the newer toll roads only represent a small proportion of Jasa Marga's total toll road portfolio. The total length of the toll roads operated after the year 2000 is only 76km - or 14% of the total length of all the toll roads. We expect another 190km of toll roads to be operated in the next 2-3 years. Of the three new sections - BORR, Surabaya Mojokerto and Semarang Solo - only the latter is showing a relatively slow growth rate. 

JORR W2 North still in progress 

We do have high hopes for the last piece of the puzzle, JORR W2 north, which should complete the Jakarta Outer Ring Road as a complete circle. The project has been divided into two stages - stage 1 Kebun Jeruk-Joglo and stage 2 Joglo-Ulujami. Land acquisition has reached 73.8% in stage 1 and 73.3% in stage 2. Jasa Marga aims to complete the land acquisition before the end of the year. Construction has also started. Stage 1 is 22% complete and stage 2 stands at 18.7%. Land acquisition remains the major issue, but Jasa Marga feels confident it can finalize land acquisition deals within the year. 

Maintain BUY 

Positively, Jasa Marga's traffic seems to be unaffected by the ongoing global turmoil. We have not seen any signs of weakness. In our view, the country's inadequate infrastructure is a huge opportunity for Jasa Marga, especially since it has an excellent business model. Nonetheless, we have not seen any acceleration of toll road development since the introduction of the new land bill. Even so, Jasa Marga is keeping up the pace in regard to its toll road development. BUY maintained with a Target Price of Rp6,100.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) Welcome on board

Commissioning the Floating FSRU

The Nusantara Regas floating terminal (40% owned by PGN) is in place about 15km offshore of North West Java. The unit has begun commissioning and received its first gas delivery in April 2012 from the Bontang gas field. A second LNG delivery is expected at the end of June 2012. The unit is a LNG vessel modified with a regas unit based on open systems that utilize seawater and propane. It is also a self-sustaining unit using part of the LNG to generate power. Full commercial operation can be expected in the next one or two months. The floating unit is operated under Golar Wihelmenson Management. Although PGN has not made public the gas purchase price, the company should, in principle, charge its customers on a cost plus basis.

Floating terminals to help transport gas

The West Java floating terminal is the first floating terminal project in Indonesia. Going forward, such terminals might be the best solution to ensure the demand for gas is met. This is because most of the gas fields are located in the eastern part of Indonesia (East Kalimantan and Papua) whereas the demand mainly comes from PLN and industries that are located in Java and Sumatra i.e. the western part of Indonesia. Building a pipeline is not feasible due to the vast distances involved and because it would have to cross the sea. Demand is growing and the Ministry of Industry estimates gas demand of 5,300 mmscfd coming from sectors such as electricity generation, metals, fertilizer production, petrochemicals and others.

Confusion on the gas price

It seems the recent gas price hikes are likely to be reviewed due to objections from the industrial gas users. The Minister of Energy and Natural Resources held a meeting with the Minister of Industry, the President Director of PGN and industry associations to discuss the recent gas price hikes of 55%. Although the current gas bill is still based on 55% higher gas prices, it appears that the government is trying to meet the wishes of industrial gas users at the expense of PGN's commercial performance. On the one hand, the government insists that PGN needs to increase the gas purchase price but, on the other hand, PGN is seemingly not allowed to pass on the increase in costs to its customers. Furthermore, the increase in the gas purchase price is not being compensated by any volume guarantees. This has resulted in a lot of confusion in the market and created negative sentiment towards PGN shares. Clarification may come soon, however, as the government has stated its intention to resolve the dispute by the end of June 2012.

HOLD reiterated

We maintain our Target Price of Rp3,575. Our calculations already incorporate 55% higher gas prices and take into account the operations of the West Java floating terminal with a one-third utilization rate. HOLD maintained.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI) Expanding its wings

Imminent acquisition 

ASRI has agreed to acquire PT Garuda Adhimatra Indonesia ("GAIN"), the owner and operator of the 60.7 hectare Garuda Wisnu Kencana Cultural Park in Bali. ASRI will take an 82% stake in GAIN from PT Multi Matra Indonesia for an investment cost of Rp738 bn. The acquisition is expected to be done in the third quarter of 2012, subject to approval from the authorities and GAIN's shareholder in addition to other customary closing conditions. Through this acquisition, ASRI hopes to expand the geographical scope of its projects and also contribute to the development of Indonesia's tourism sector. Furthermore, ASRI also hopes this project can raise the proportion of its recurring income in the future since it currently stands at a relatively low level (2% of total revenues in 1Q12). 

Still upbeat on marketing sales 

Total marketing sales in the year to May 2012 have reached Rp2,095 bn. This is already 60% of the company's full year estimate and 62% of our full year estimate - a strong number indeed. In this period, the vast majority of the marketing sales (98%) still originated from the Serpong project. For May alone, marketing sales for the Serpong project reached Rp307 bn, of which 77% were for Sutera Sitara Orlanda, the newest sub-cluster launched by ASRI. Looking ahead, ASRI plans to launch another 1-2 clusters for the Serpong project and 2-3 clusters in Pasar Kemis. Given the strong marketing sales so far, we slightly raise our full year target to Rp3.4 T from Rp3.2 T previously. The company, however, maintains its marketing sales forecast at Rp3.5 T. 

Major capex plans 

In our previous report, we mentioned that ASRI plans to spend around Rp2-3 Tn on capital expenditure this year. However, with the acquisition of GAIN, this number has now been bumped up to around Rp3.5-4 tn. A breakdown of the planned capex reveals that Rp1.4 tn is for project acquisition and development; Rp1.4-1.8 tn is for continued land acquisition in Serpong and Pasar Kemis; and the remaining Rp700 bn is for construction. This sizeable amount of planned capex will be funded from internal cash (the company is flush with cash after issuing US$150 mn of senior notes in March 2012). However, for funding the acquisition of GAIN, ASRI will use bank loans that are currently in the process of being arranged. Note that we have not incorporated the GAIN acquisition into our calculations but we still believe it is okay for ASRI to use debt financing since the company remained in a net cash position up to 1Q12. 

TP raised to Rp760 

Adjusting the land price to reflect the current conditions directly lifts the total marketing sales and the company's total NAV for 2012. There is no significant impact on our net profits estimate, however. This is because we have to take into account the issuance of USD$150 mn of senior notes which push up the company's interest expenses. Using a 25% discount to the new total NAV of Rp19,877 bn, we arrive at a new Target Price of Rp760, offering 41% potential upside from the current share price. This TP implies 14.8-11.5x FY12-13F P/E. BUY.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF) A love deal

Love Juice acquisition

Kalbe recently said that it had signed a Conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement (CSPA) to take over Hale International, the producer of a health drink called "Love Juice". The value of the acquisition is Rp100bn - including fixed assets and brand equity. This acquisition bolsters Kalbe's portfolio of health drinks. At the present time, there are a number of health drinks in Kalbe's portfolio, namely Extra Joss (energy drink), Fatigon Hydro (coconut water) and Tipco (fruit and vegetable juice). The last two products (Fatigon Hydro and Tipco) are toll-manufactured and contribute around 4-5% to the company's total revenues.

60% DPR for FY11 earnings

At the last Annual General Shareholders' Meeting (AGM), Kalbe received approval from its shareholders to distribute 60% of its 2011 earnings as dividends, amounting to Rp95 per share. This is higher than our expectation of a 50% DPR. Looking at the current share price of Rp3,950, the 2011 dividend provides a yield of around 2.4%, or higher than the previous yield of only around 1.6%. However, the company's management also indicated that it would revert to a DPR of 50% in future years, explaining that the 60% DPR for FY11 earnings reflected the especially strong performance in that year.

1:5 stock split

Kalbe also received approval from its shareholders at the AGM to split its shares in a ratio of 1:5, increasing the liquidity of the shares and making them more affordable for retail investors. Following the stock split, the number of shares will increase to around 50.8mn shares. The stock split will become effective after the dividends are paid on 17 July 2012.

Still searching for acquisition target

Kalbe has been sitting on huge cash on hands for many years. Having such strong cash on hands, the company is considering expanding its business, organically as well as inorganically. Last year, the company has nearly Rp2tn cash on hands, which should be more than enough to finance its expansion programs. 

Maintain HOLD with a TP of Rp4,050

After adjusting our Risk Free Rate to 8.5% from 9% previously, our Target Price is raised to Rp4,050. The counter currently trades at 2012F P/E of 23.7x. Maintain HOLD.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

AISA Pola Cup n Handle

AISA pada penutupan hari senin tanggal 18 Juni 2012 di harga 630, dan jika ditarik chartnya dari bulan Desember 2011 sampai dengan sekarang membentuk pola cup n handle (cangkir dan pegangan) dan pada tanggal 08 Juni 2012 telah break dan mencoba untuk naik dengan target I di 720 dan target II di 970.
Untuk level Support I di 580 dan Support II di 500

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Friday, June 15, 2012

Selamat Sempurna (SMSM) A Lucrative Acquisition

TP raised to Rp2,506, maintain BUY 

Although our sales target remains unchanged, we slightly raise our net earnings forecast because of the acquisition of a 49% stake in PT Hydraxle Perkasa, its sister company. We also adjust our macro assumptions, as well as the debt portion in our WACC calculations (to 40% from 30% previously) and our cost of debt assumption (to 10.5% from 11% previously). Consequently, we raise our Target Price to Rp2,506, implying PER FY12-13 of 15.0-13.3x. The stock currently trades at an attractive valuation of 11.2-9.9x PER FY12-13. BUY maintained. 

New Acquisition: PT Hydraxle Perkasa 

On 1 May, SMSM bought a 49% stake in PT Hydraxle Perkasa (HP), its sister company, which, according to GIAMM, is the largest manufacturer of dump body hoists for trucks in Indonesia. In the transaction, SMSM bought 720,588 shares in HP for Rp 113bn or Rp 157/share. This implies PER FY11 for HP of 7.0x. The HP shares sold to SMSM are entirely new shares. Proceeds raised from the transaction will be used by HP to repay its entire debts of Rp 42bn with the remainder used to fund expansion of its facilities and for working capital. SMSM has the option to buy another 2% stake in HP before 31 December. 

Earnings Boost from the New Acquisition 

SMSM's needs for molds and dies are met by HP. As a result, the acquisition of a 49% stake in HP will guarantee continuity in the supply of molding products. In FY08-11, HP's revenues and net profits grew by CAGR 24.3% and 84.1%, respectively. Looking ahead, with further strong growth anticipated in Indonesia's mining sector, we expect HP's net earnings to show stronger growth. SMSM's share of HP profits shall be incorporated using the equity method. Moreover, the acquisition should also be earnings boosting, we believe, since our estimates for SMSM's net profits in FY12-13-14 are lifted to Rp 240bn-272bn-312bn (or 2-6% higher than our previous forecast). To fund the acquisition, SMSM has obtained a loan facility without collateral from Mizuho Bank. In this regard, we assume SMSM takes on additional loans of Rp 100bn in FY12. Following the acquisition we now forecast SMSM's gearing ratio to increase to 49% (compared to our previous forecast of 30%). 

Generous Final Dividends of Rp50/share 

SMSM has announced a FY11 final dividend of Rp 50/share. This comes after the interim dividend of Rp 50/share. Hence, in total, SMSM shall distribute 72% of its FY11 net profits as dividends to its shareholders - as we had previously forecast. SMSM's final dividend of Rp 50/share offers the shareholders an attractive yield of 2.7% at the current share price. The cum-date will be on 29 June with the dividends paid on 17 July. Reflecting the company's guidelines of delivering sustained dividends growth, we forecast SMSM's dividends per share to grow by 6% CAGR in FY12-14, assuming that interim dividends distributed to shareholders are 50% of the total dividends. This suggests a DPR of around 60% in FY12-14 and a dividend yield in FY12 of 5.7% at the current share price.

Semen Gresik (SMGR) All about expansion

Targeting Vietnam

The management of Semen Gresik has stated its intention of investing in Vietnam - a move which reflects the company's desire to grow inorganically if there are any opportunities. The acquisition would create additional capacity instantly and boost Semen Gresik's cash flows. Vietnam's close proximity to North Sumatra provides good access to Indonesia and to the northern part of Sumatra especially. Nonetheless, the acquisition price remains an important factor. As to the acquisition target, Semen Gresik has yet to disclose any names. It is also too early to determine the potential impact of any such acquisition on Semen Gresik's operations.

Tuban IV in operation

Tuban IV has been running trail operations for the last two months. Although delayed for about 4 months, the project is still within budget. The current production level of the new plant is 3,000 tonnes per day, translating into a utilization rate of 30%. Going forward, the plant's utilization rate will gradually be increased over the next 2-3 months. With the additional capacity coming from Tuban IV, the Tuban facility should have production capacity of 10mn tonnes p.a., thereby increasing the total production capacity to 22.0mn tonnes p.a.

Further expansion plans

The management of Semen Gresik plans to submit new expansion plans to its shareholders at the upcoming AGM. This will allow the company to attain shareholders' approval sooner rather than later. The initial plan is to build two new cement plants in Java and Sumatra. Although the timeline is to add new capacity in 2015-16, construction of new plants could take 36-48 months, meaning the new capacity is ready only in 2018-19. When the new capacity is ready, the current plant should be running at full capacity. Notably, all this expansion is on top of the inorganic growth. In simple terms, if the cement market grows by 6% p.a. - a reasonable assumption - then the cement industry will need to add capacity of 3.0mn tonnes every year - or basically one plant each year. Besides Semen Gresik, the other players in the industry also have plans to raise capacity. Although this is encouraging, the cement companies must be careful in adding capacity at the right time, so as to avoid a sudden oversupply condition.

BUY recommended

In our view, Semen Gresik remains committed to its grand strategy of maintaining market share of 40-45% in the domestic market. To ensure that it meets this goal, the company is actively seeking opportunities to grow - either organically or by making acquisitions. In this way, Semen Gresik hopes to maintain its dominant position in the domestic market. The Vietnam acquisition could help it achieve this target. BUY maintained with a Target Price of Rp13,850.

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Jaya Agra Wattie (JAWA) A Distinctive Mix

We initiate coverage on JAWA with a BUY recommendation. We like the company because of: 1) its distinctive mix of revenues from rubber and palm oil, 2) its extensive unplanted land bank of 33k ha, 3) the good growth potential supported by the company's new plantings strategy and 4) the company's sound financial health. The stock currently trades at 8.3x FY12 P/E, a 34% discount to the industry average. Using a DCF valuation method, we set our Target Price at Rp550, implying FY12-13F P/E of 12.8-10.1x, offering 55% potential upside.

A distinctive revenues mix

JAWA has a unique revenues mix compared to other listed plantation companies. This is because rubber dominates its revenues at 63% of the total, while revenues from palm oil are 35% of the total, with the remaining 2% coming from others (coffee and tea). Profitability wise, rubber had the highest gross and net margins at 53% and 40%, respectively, in 2011. By comparison, the gross and net margins of palm oil were 39% and 30%, respectively. Note that rubber and palm oil have different weather performance characteristics. As such, a combination of these two plantations will lead to more stable performance since the company is not dependent on a single commodity.

Rubber provides the majority of the revenues

JAWA has large immature areas, both for rubber and palm oil. Rubber's immature area is 53% of the total rubber planted area of 9.6k ha. On top of this, there is also huge unplanted landbank of 21k ha. As a result, we expect higher rubber production growth in the coming years. Indeed, JAWA is already targeting new plantings of 14.5k ha up to 2014. In our estimates, rubber production will grow by 3-year CAGR of 13% in 2011-14F.

Palm oil to contribute more

Unlike other plantations companies, palm oil accounts for less than 50% of JAWA's total revenues (35% in 2011 or amounting to Rp 224bn). Notably, the immature portion is very large - 72% of the total area vs. an industry average of just 32%. This offers great potential for growth going forward. In this regard, JAWA targets new plantings of 7,000 ha for oil palm up to 2014. Along with the growth in nucleus production, we expect margins to increase since 49% of its COGS are purchases of raw materials (lumps, logs and FFB).

Sound balance sheet


The company's gearing ratio declined to 0.57x in 2011 from 1.32x in 2010. In regard to the planned expansion, we believe the company will be able to take on external loans since its net gearing is relatively low. JAWA has stated its intention of issuing bonds in September 2012. The financial results are now being audited. This will allow JAWA to get a rating from Pefindo. This year's capex is budgeted at Rp490bn for the new plantings and construction of 4 new plants. Furthermore, JAWA distributed some 20% of its 2011 net income as dividends, translating to Rp 9.6/share and implying a 2.7% gross dividend yield.

Metropolitan Land (MTLA) On A Strong Footing

We initiate coverage on Metropolitan Land (MTLA), an Indonesian property company which has a focus on the middle-income segment. We like the company for: 1) its balanced revenues structure between recurring and non-recurring income which helps ensure sustainability, 2) the continued good performance of its residential projects, 3) the company's sound financial conditions which facilitate development. To value this stock, we use a combination of the asset valuation and DCF methods. By applying a 50% discount to NAV, we arrive at a Target Price of Rp550, implying FY12F-13F P/E of 20.8-16.0 x. BUY.

Balanced revenues structure

Revenues from real estate - from residential projects and condotel - accounted for 68.5% of the company's total revenues in 1Q12. All in all, the company is committed to achieving a balanced revenues structure. To this end, the company is developing new commercial assets. This year, for example, the company is constructing the Grand Metropolitan Mall in West Bekasi. Furthermore, in a bid to ride on the growth in Indonesia's burgeoning tourism industry, MTLA plans to build three budget hotels this year. Profitability wise, the gross margin is showing steady improvements as the company achieves a better mix between residential projects and high margin commercial properties.

Expecting strong sales

MTLA is currently developing six middle-segment focused residential projects. Demand for properties in each project remains high (as reflected in the continuously rising land prices). All in all, the company is targeting Rp582 bn in marketing sales from its residential projects in 2012 (30% higher than in 2011) and another Rp68.7 bn from the M-Gold apartment and office that will be launched this year. Our 2012 marketing sales forecast, by comparison, is slightly lower than the company's at Rp616 bn. Since MTLA does not have that much land bank (in comparison to other property companies), the company will keep looking for land plots of 100-200 ha in size to develop its new residential projects.

Good financials shall facilitate development

With several proposed projects, capex is expected to reach Rp965 bn this year. A large amount of the capex will be used to construct Grand Metropolitan Mall. For this mall, some 79% of the total capex required of Rp450 bn will be spent this year. To finance part of this year's capex, the company will use the remaining IPO proceeds. However, given the large amount of capex planned for this year, the company will also need to make use of external funding sources. In this regard, we believe the company may take on around Rp200 bn of bank loans. However, with a net cash position at the end of 2011, we don't think the company will face difficulties in taking on external loans.