Friday, April 27, 2012

AISA Buy

Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Upward revision to reflect strong 4Q11 Adjustments made to reflect the 2011 results The 2011 revenues came in slightly higher than our forecast with higher-than-expected revenues from the food manufacturing and rice units. In 2011, revenues from food manufacturing reached Rp982bn (vis-à-vis our forecast of Rp835bn) while revenues from the rice unit reached Rp726bn (vis-à-vis our forecast of Rp686bn). Elsewhere, however, the plantations unit failed to reach our target of Rp164bn with revenues reaching only Rp81bn in 2011. We have made some adjustments accordingly, raising our full year revenues forecast to Rp2.77tr from Rp2.68tr previously, an upward revision of about 3%, but reducing our full year net profit forecast by 13% to Rp181bn from Rp207.5bn previously. Forecasting stronger food manufacturing revenues coming from Taro snack We have raised our forecasts for the food units with a stronger contribution coming from the snack foods unit as revenues from Taro were first booked in January this year. We have upped our full year revenues forecast for the Food unit by nearly 15% to Rp1.37tr from Rp1.2tr previously, raising our forecast for the snack foods unit from Rp244bn previously to Rp322bn. Forecast revenues for rice unit revised up by 5% We have also raised our revenues forecast for the rice unit to reflect the strong 2011 performance. We upped our forecast to Rp1.26tr from Rp1.2tr previously. The company is in negotiations to add another two mills this year as part of its long term plans, resulting in total capacity of 200K tons of rice this year, involving a total investment of between Rp170bn to Rp200bn. The new mills shall be located in East Java and Central Java. Forecast revenues for plantations unit reduced We have reduced our revenues forecast for the plantations unit as we anticipate CPO production to start in the second half of the year. In addition, the anticipated 5,000ha new planting plan is now shifted from 2011 to 2012, thus raising this year's new planting program to 11,800ha from 6,000ha previously. As a result, our 2012 revenues forecast is slashed to Rp148bn from Rp295.5bn previously. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of Rp950 Following the adjustments, we slightly raise our TP to Rp950 from Rp925 previously. The new TP implies 2012F P/E of 15.4x. Currently, the counter trades at 2012F P/E of 10.5x.

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