JSMR Direkomendasi Beli

Jasa Marga 1Q12 traffic volume Growing on a monthly basis Jasa Marga's traffic reached 97.8mn vehicles in March 2012, or up 7.5% mom. And even though there are more operating days in March than in February, daily average traffic still grew by 0.5% mom to 3.16mn vehicles per day, depicting resilient growth despite concerns that inflation would pick up if the government hikes subsidized fuel prices. In regard to new toll road sections, the Semarang-Solo and Surabaya-Mojokerto sections have shown promising signs of growth. New toll roads a boost to traffic Cumulatively up to March 2012, Jasa Marga's total traffic reached 284.6mn vehicles, or up 12.1% yoy, with the new sections providing a source of growth. Other cities besides Jakarta - such as Semarang, Surabaya, and Medan - have seen solid traffic growth reflecting brisk economic activities in those cities. Traffic congestion is severe in greater Jakarta and other cities might offer better infrastructure for investment and business. This shift in economic activities to areas out of Jakarta is likely to continue in our opinion. Share divestment plans Jasa Marga has announced plans to divest its minority holding in Citra Marga Nusaphala (CMNP) and its own shares acquired through share buy backs. Jasa Marga holds a 3.8% stake in CMNP worth Rp195.8bn (81.6mn shares), while the company's holding of its own stock is worth Rp122.5bn (24.5mn shares). Hence, through the planned divestments, Jasa Marga would raise around Rp318.3bn. These funds would be used to finance capex for new toll roads. Looking pricey Jasa Marga's operational performance is inline with our expectations. Looking ahead, the company has major investment plans with seven new toll roads in the pipeline and new sections being added. This provides the impetus for growth, although land acquisition remains a lengthy process. It remains to be seen whether new legislation will have the desired effect and speed up the land acquisition process. Currently we are revisiting our numbers - especially in regard to the company's investment plans. At the current share price, the stock trades at PER FY12-13 of 32.9-37.4x and EV/EBITDA of 16.4-15.3x, a touch pricey, in our view. Maintain BUY at the moment.