KLBF Hold

Kalbe Farma 1Q12 Results: Meet our expectations Revenues inline with expectations Revenues grew 27.7% to over Rp3tr in 1Q12, up from Rp2.4tr in the same quarter last year - reaching 23.5% of our full year forecast of Rp12.8tr, i.e. inline. All business segments recorded strong growth in the period. The only segment to disappoint was the consumer health segment whose 1Q12 revenues were only about 20% of our full year target. Operating profits also reached our expectations The operating profits grew by 23.6% yoy to Rp515bn in 1Q12, or up from Rp417bn in the same period last year. The figure was slightly above expectations, reaching 25.7% of our full year forecast of over Rp2tr. Bottom line: slightly above forecast At the bottom line, Kalbe recorded a 27.7% yoy increase in net profits to Rp403bn, or up from Rp316bn in the same period the year before. The figure is 26% of our full year forecast of Rp1.5tr. Lower profit margins, as expected Profit margins weakened in 1Q12, as expected. The gross margin fell to 49% from 51.8% in 1Q11. This was expected, however, given the stronger contribution from the distribution unit. The operating margin also declined, falling to 17.2% in 1Q12 from 17.7% in 1Q11. The net margin was stable at around 13.9. Still HOLD with a TP of Rp3,725 We are satisfied with the company's performance in 1Q12 as our full year forecasts were reached in almost all accounts. As such, we maintain our HOLD recommendation with a TP of Rp3,725, implying a 2012F P/E multiple of 22.6x. At the current share price level, the counter is trading at a 2012F P/E multiple of 21.4x.

AISA Buy

Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Upward revision to reflect strong 4Q11 Adjustments made to reflect the 2011 results The 2011 revenues came in slightly higher than our forecast with higher-than-expected revenues from the food manufacturing and rice units. In 2011, revenues from food manufacturing reached Rp982bn (vis-à-vis our forecast of Rp835bn) while revenues from the rice unit reached Rp726bn (vis-à-vis our forecast of Rp686bn). Elsewhere, however, the plantations unit failed to reach our target of Rp164bn with revenues reaching only Rp81bn in 2011. We have made some adjustments accordingly, raising our full year revenues forecast to Rp2.77tr from Rp2.68tr previously, an upward revision of about 3%, but reducing our full year net profit forecast by 13% to Rp181bn from Rp207.5bn previously. Forecasting stronger food manufacturing revenues coming from Taro snack We have raised our forecasts for the food units with a stronger contribution coming from the snack foods unit as revenues from Taro were first booked in January this year. We have upped our full year revenues forecast for the Food unit by nearly 15% to Rp1.37tr from Rp1.2tr previously, raising our forecast for the snack foods unit from Rp244bn previously to Rp322bn. Forecast revenues for rice unit revised up by 5% We have also raised our revenues forecast for the rice unit to reflect the strong 2011 performance. We upped our forecast to Rp1.26tr from Rp1.2tr previously. The company is in negotiations to add another two mills this year as part of its long term plans, resulting in total capacity of 200K tons of rice this year, involving a total investment of between Rp170bn to Rp200bn. The new mills shall be located in East Java and Central Java. Forecast revenues for plantations unit reduced We have reduced our revenues forecast for the plantations unit as we anticipate CPO production to start in the second half of the year. In addition, the anticipated 5,000ha new planting plan is now shifted from 2011 to 2012, thus raising this year's new planting program to 11,800ha from 6,000ha previously. As a result, our 2012 revenues forecast is slashed to Rp148bn from Rp295.5bn previously. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of Rp950 Following the adjustments, we slightly raise our TP to Rp950 from Rp925 previously. The new TP implies 2012F P/E of 15.4x. Currently, the counter trades at 2012F P/E of 10.5x.

BSDE Rekomendasi Buy

Bumi Serpong Damai Where the future lies Strong marketing sales Marketing sales reached Rp828 bn in 1Q12, up 17% yoy. The 1Q12 marketing sales are also 20% of our full year target of Rp4.1 trillion (which is 19% higher than the marketing sales achieved in 2011). The major contributor to the marketing sales is BSD city, followed by Kota Wisata and Grand Wisata. Note that as a result of seasonality, BSDE usually books 40% of its marketing sales in the first half of the year and 60% in the second half (since more clusters are launched in the second quarter). BSD City is about to launch four new clusters: FOGLIO, PLACIDO, GIARDINA HEIGHT, and ALBER EXTENTION by the end of April. The total number of units to be launched is 198, with prices ranging from Rp900 million to Rp2.1 billion. The Serpong area has great appeal Continued improvements in the infrastructure supported by the availability of access roads, suggest a bright future for the Serpong area. Given the development trend in this area, BSDE is optimistic that Serpong will become a new CBD area within the next 5 years, a significant change since 70% of the BSD City workers are still commuting to Jakarta, even up to now. Demand in BSD City remains high and the area accounts for 65%-70% of the company's total marketing sales. By selling around 100 ha per year, or about 1,000-2,000 houses, BSDE's current huge land bank of 3,055 ha in the BSD City area should be sufficient for around 30 years of development. Strong appetite for BSD City property translates into continuous land price appreciation. For the residential and commercial areas, average land selling prices reached Rp4.5 mn and Rp7mn, respectively, in 2011. This year, we forecast 15% selling price increases. Strong internal funding Despite its huge landbank, the company is eager to acquire more land, especially since the current land acquisition price is only Rp300-400k per sqm. For 2012, BSDE has earmarked Rp2 trillion for capex, of which Rp600-700 bn will be used for land acquisition and the rest for building the infrastructure and financing the construction of the office buildings. With cash of Rp3,479 bn at the end of 2011, and only a small amount of debt financing, we anticipate that the company will remain in a net cash position of 35% at the end of 2012. TP raised to Rp1,580 We remain optimistic on the company's outlook - especially the BSD City project which has plenty of room to be developed going forward. Additional growth will come from BSDE's other projects which have shown consistently good performance. Surging land prices have boosted the value of the company's assets, resulting in total NAV of Rp61,508 billion. By applying a 55% discount to the NAV of the total company, we arrive at a new Target Price of Rp1,580. BUY.

AALI Rekomendasi Hold

Astra Agro Lestari 1Q12 result Earnings fall on lower ASP.... Sales reached Rp 2.5tn in 1Q12 (-6.6% YoY), above our forecast but in line with the consensus. The lower CPO and PK ASP in 1Q12 (-6.9-38.7% yoy) dragged down the 1Q12 revenues despite higher CPO and PK sales volume (+5.6-63% yoy). As a result, the bottom line fell 42.2% YoY to Rp 378bn, 17% of our full year forecast and 14% of the consensus. .... coupled with higher costs and a higher opex to sales ratio Margins were weaker, as expected. The gross margin was down by 1,030bps to 28.6% due to increases in harvesting and maintenance costs (+10% YoY, 32% of costs) as the number of workers increased along with the addition of 17k ha of newly mature areas. The lower margin was exacerbated by the higher opex to sales ratio, up from 5.7% to 8.1% in 1Q12. In particular, the company recorded higher selling expenses (+34% YoY, 37% opex) and higher wage costs (+23% YoY, 25% opex). The operating margin slumped 1,220bps to 20.6%. Strong external production growth FFB harvested reached 1.09mn tons (+4.6% yoy, -19.6% qoq) thanks to the higher external production of 493k tons (+14.6% yoy, -24.2% qoq) while the nucleus production reached 796k tons (+0.7% yoy, -4.7% qoq). The company's intensification program ensured a relatively stable yield of 4.6 tons/ha, slightly down as the newly mature area increased. CPO production reached 289k tons (+5.2% yoy, -14.2% qoq), in line with our forecast while PK production reached 63k tons (+11.2% yoy, -13.5% qoq). New plantings reached 150ha, with replanting of 160ha. Currently AALI is in the process of obtaining land rights in South Kalimantan. Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged For the meantime we maintain our HOLD recommendation, awaiting the 1H12 results. Our concerns are on the limited production growth and weaker margins although its net cash of Rp 558bn and decent dividends (4.5% dividend yield with Rp 995 DPS) do offer some support. Our TP of Rp 23,100 implies FY12-13 P/E of 16.2-14.4x. The shares currently trade at 15.5 x P/E, an 18% premium to its peers.

BWPT Rekomendasi Beli

BW Plantation 1Q12 Result Top line growth from higher CPO volumes Revenues grew 55% YoY in 1Q12 to Rp 268bn thanks to higher CPO sales volume of 31k tons (+75.8% YoY) despite slightly lower CPO ASP of Rp 7,835/kg (-0.5% YoY). Net profits grew 52% to Rp 82bn in 1Q12, or 21% of our full year forecast. Margins, however, were weaker. Lower margins margin were due to higher fertilizer costs and employee benefits, +17-28% YoY, respectively. The gross margin fell by 1,110bps to 61%, while the operating margin declined by 850bps to 44.8%. Higher growth from plasma despite its small portion Production wise, plasma FFB production grew 46.3% YoY to 5,032 tons while nucleus FFB production grew a slower 3.6% YoY to 111,215 tons. As a result, CPO and PK production was up by 8.2-11.1% to 27,426 tons and 4,688 tons, respectively. The CPO and PK production in 1Q12 reached 21% of our full year forecast. Indeed, according to the management, 1H12 will account for around 40% of this year's production. CPO sales volume increased to 31,001 tons (+75.8% YoY), which includes last year's inventory of 2,733 tons, while PK sales volume was little changed at 5,100 tons. 150k ha of land bank by 2015 The company's target is to increase its land bank to 150k ha by 2015 from the current 114k ha. This year, the company plans to increase its oil palm plantations area of 10,000 ha to 20,000 ha in Kalimantan. BWPT has allocated Rp 270bn for acquisition purposes. In March 2012, BWPT signed a CSPA with PT Prima Cipta Selaras, which has a location permit covering 11,203 ha, some 2,059 ha of which have already been planted in nucleus areas, in a deal worth Rp 175bn. The estates are located in Kutai, East Kalimantan, near the SSS estates. Net gearing at its highest level Net gearing has increased to 135% from 75% in 1Q11. This year capex will reach Rp 1tn with funding coming from additional bank loans with a lower cost of funds. Note that another 60 tons/hour mill will be built at the SSS estates this year with expected completed by 2014 to process FFB from 24,433 ha of new maturing areas. The cost of the new mill is Rp 120bn. Capex will also be spent on new plantings and to acquire more land bank. Maintain BUY, higher TP of Rp 1,910 We have adjusted our model to reflect the new acquisition and reduced our WACC assumption to 12.8% to reflect the lower risk free interest rate of 8.5%. We maintain our BUY recommendation and raise our TP to Rp 1,910, implying FY 12-13F P/E of 20.5-14.6 x, which is justified, we believe by the company's strong production growth profile, high productivity and excellent margins. The stock currently trades at 17.7 x P/E, offering 15.8% potential upside.

MAPI Rekomendasi Beli

Mitra Adiperkasa A middle class growth story Strong revenues growth to be maintained At the top line, net revenues grew a brisk 25% to Rp5,890 bn in 2011. Furthermore, profitability remains good with the gross margin edging up to 51.66% in 2011, or slightly above our previous forecast of 50.2%. Going forward, MAPI is confident it can maintain its high margins. This year, with the continued high demand from the country's burgeoning middle class coupled with the company's aggressive expansion strategy, we expect revenues to grow another 25% to Rp7,314 bn. Strong performance in the first quarter MAPI has indicated sales growth of 29% yoy in the first quarter of 2012 to Rp1,637 bn, up from Rp1,269.10 bn in 1Q11. This represents 22% of our total revenues forecast for the full year, consistent with MAPI's seasonal average in the first quarter in previous years. To help spur revenues growth, MAPI is adding more brands to its portfolio (in the first quarter of the year, MAPI added 3 new brands: Spanx, Diva, and HossIntropia). Although the company's focus is on store expansion, MAPI will still acquire new brands in an effort to maintain its position as the leading retail marketing company in Indonesia. Continuing to expand its retail network MAPI added 32 new stores across the country in the first quarter of 2012, mostly in the food and beverages segment, lifting the total number of stores it manages to 1,076. This translated into the addition of 5,214 sqm of store space during the period, resulting in total store space of 470,352 sqm. For 2012, MAPI plans to add around 60,000 sqm of additional floor space, most of it in Jakarta thanks to the opening of two new department stores (Sogo in Kota Kasablanka and Debenhams in Kemang Village), which together shall add 30,000 sqm of store space. With Rp600 billion of capex needed for this year's expansion, financed from internally generated cash and external financing, we expect net gearing to reach 52% in 2012. TP raised to Rp7,200 We are encouraged by 2011's excellent performance and remain confident that the company can repeat this success again in 2012. Our confidence is grounded in the country's solid economic growth which is creating a burgeoning middle class and therefore higher demand for MAPI's products. We raise our Target Price to Rp7,200, implying a FY12/13 PE of 25.5-20.5x. BUY maintained.

JSMR Direkomendasi Beli

Jasa Marga 1Q12 traffic volume Growing on a monthly basis Jasa Marga's traffic reached 97.8mn vehicles in March 2012, or up 7.5% mom. And even though there are more operating days in March than in February, daily average traffic still grew by 0.5% mom to 3.16mn vehicles per day, depicting resilient growth despite concerns that inflation would pick up if the government hikes subsidized fuel prices. In regard to new toll road sections, the Semarang-Solo and Surabaya-Mojokerto sections have shown promising signs of growth. New toll roads a boost to traffic Cumulatively up to March 2012, Jasa Marga's total traffic reached 284.6mn vehicles, or up 12.1% yoy, with the new sections providing a source of growth. Other cities besides Jakarta - such as Semarang, Surabaya, and Medan - have seen solid traffic growth reflecting brisk economic activities in those cities. Traffic congestion is severe in greater Jakarta and other cities might offer better infrastructure for investment and business. This shift in economic activities to areas out of Jakarta is likely to continue in our opinion. Share divestment plans Jasa Marga has announced plans to divest its minority holding in Citra Marga Nusaphala (CMNP) and its own shares acquired through share buy backs. Jasa Marga holds a 3.8% stake in CMNP worth Rp195.8bn (81.6mn shares), while the company's holding of its own stock is worth Rp122.5bn (24.5mn shares). Hence, through the planned divestments, Jasa Marga would raise around Rp318.3bn. These funds would be used to finance capex for new toll roads. Looking pricey Jasa Marga's operational performance is inline with our expectations. Looking ahead, the company has major investment plans with seven new toll roads in the pipeline and new sections being added. This provides the impetus for growth, although land acquisition remains a lengthy process. It remains to be seen whether new legislation will have the desired effect and speed up the land acquisition process. Currently we are revisiting our numbers - especially in regard to the company's investment plans. At the current share price, the stock trades at PER FY12-13 of 32.9-37.4x and EV/EBITDA of 16.4-15.3x, a touch pricey, in our view. Maintain BUY at the moment.

Jasa Marga Beli

Jasa Marga 1Q12 traffic volume Growing on a monthly basis Jasa Marga's traffic reached 97.8mn vehicles in March 2012, or up 7.5% mom. And even though there are more operating days in March than in February, daily average traffic still grew by 0.5% mom to 3.16mn vehicles per day, depicting resilient growth despite concerns that inflation would pick up if the government hikes subsidized fuel prices. In regard to new toll road sections, the Semarang-Solo and Surabaya-Mojokerto sections have shown promising signs of growth. New toll roads a boost to traffic Cumulatively up to March 2012, Jasa Marga's total traffic reached 284.6mn vehicles, or up 12.1% yoy, with the new sections providing a source of growth. Other cities besides Jakarta - such as Semarang, Surabaya, and Medan - have seen solid traffic growth reflecting brisk economic activities in those cities. Traffic congestion is severe in greater Jakarta and other cities might offer better infrastructure for investment and business. This shift in economic activities to areas out of Jakarta is likely to continue in our opinion. Share divestment plans Jasa Marga has announced plans to divest its minority holding in Citra Marga Nusaphala (CMNP) and its own shares acquired through share buy backs. Jasa Marga holds a 3.8% stake in CMNP worth Rp195.8bn (81.6mn shares), while the company's holding of its own stock is worth Rp122.5bn (24.5mn shares). Hence, through the planned divestments, Jasa Marga would raise around Rp318.3bn. These funds would be used to finance capex for new toll roads. Looking pricey Jasa Marga's operational performance is inline with our expectations. Looking ahead, the company has major investment plans with seven new toll roads in the pipeline and new sections being added. This provides the impetus for growth, although land acquisition remains a lengthy process. It remains to be seen whether new legislation will have the desired effect and speed up the land acquisition process. Currently we are revisiting our numbers - especially in regard to the company's investment plans. At the current share price, the stock trades at PER FY12-13 of 32.9-37.4x and EV/EBITDA of 16.4-15.3x, a touch pricey, in our view. Maintain BUY at the moment.

ACES Pandangan Tehnikal

Berdasarkan artikel sebelumnya oleh @ The Benjamin bahwa saham ACES punya peluang untuk reversal, jadi disini saya akan mencoba mengulas secara tehnikalnya.

Bahwa ACES sudah berada di area support I di 4400, sehinga saham ini berpeluang untuk reversal dengan target resisten I di 4600, dan resisten II di 4800. Tapi apabila jebol support I di 4400, maka akan melanjutkan penurunan di support II di 4025

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ACES rekomendasi Beli

Ace Hardware Indonesia



Expansion on track



Better margins on higher volumes

ACES's gross margin improved to 45.5% in 2011 from 41.9% in 2010. In 2Q11, the gross margin reached its highest level of 49.6% thanks to ACES's suppliers giving the company lower prices because of higher volume purchases in relation to the huge expansion undertaken in 2011. Looking ahead, the improvement in gross margin is expected to last, with the company forecasting a sustainable margin of 45%.



Continuing to grow

ACES's growth strategy amidst strong domestic consumption suggests that 2012 will be another good year for the company. We forecast FY12F revenues to grow a brisk 26% to Rp3,142 bn, a touch higher than the company's target of Rp3 trillion. In the first quarter of 2012, the company already booked Rp718 bn of sales, reaching 23% of our full year sales forecast and slightly above the first quarter average over the past 5 years of 22%. The briskest SSG is at the company's South Kalimantan stores, +47.5% YTD and +44.6% in March 2012. The total SSG is 18.3% YTD.



Six new stores have opened YTD

As targeted, ACES has opened six new stores in the first four months of 2012. The newest store was opened on April 11th at Tebet Green Jakarta covering an area of 1,100 sqm. As a result, ACES now has a total of 59 stores spread throughout Indonesia. Looking ahead, the company plans to open another 9 stores this year, adding 30,782 sqm of floor space. The new stores will be located in Jakarta, Java (out of Jakarta) and out of Java. The next grand opening to take place will be on April 21st, 2012, in Kalimantan. For the toys business, the company will add five more stores this year, with most of them located in Jakarta. The capital cost will remain the same, that is about Rp4 million per sqm for store expansion. As such, the company will need to spend Rp123 bn on capital expenditure for store expansion this year, entirely funded from internal cash.



Maintain BUY with a TP of Rp4,800

We have adjusted our forecast numbers to reflect the company's good performance in 2011. We also lower our risk free rate assumption to 8.5% from 9% previously. However, we slightly trim our store expansion assumption for 2012 from 35,000 sqm to 30,782 sqm. All in all, we remain confident that ACE's expansion plans will allow the company to benefit from the continued strong demand in the market for its products. BUY maintained with a Target Price of Rp4,800, implying PE FY12F-13F of 25.0-20.1 x.

ISAT rekomendasi jual

Indosat



Leaner but debt ridden



Maintain SELL

We maintain our recommendation to SELL with a new Target Price of Rp4,950, reflecting tight competition in the sector, the company's high gearing and the need for continuous capex to stay competitive. Indosat is taking steps to improve its operating efficiency (as achieved through tower sales for example) and to lighten its balance sheet. Although Indosat has not disclosed the net impact of the tower sales transaction, we believe that the operational impact is likely to be minor even though Indosat will benefit from approximately Rp3.6tn of cash received upfront. These funds can be used to reduce gearing. Yet challenges remain and Indosat will have to work hard to defend its market share from other operators, especially aggressive competitors like XL Axiata, Axis and 3.



Gearing remains high

Among the incumbents, Indosat has the highest net gearing (116% as of December 2011). This compares to net gearing of 75% for XL Axiata and only 17% for Telkom. Going forward, Indosat has limited room to reduce its gearing given stagnant EBITDA of around Rp9.0-9.5tn per year. Yet to keep up with technological developments and to undertake further business expansion, Indosat needs to spend around Rp6tn per year on capex. That leaves free cash flow of around Rp3.0tn per year to service debt and make tax payments. Interest expenses are about Rp1.6-1.7tn each year. As Indosat's current debt level is about Rp23.4tn with an average maturity of only 4.7 years, the company will need to refinance some of its debt.



Least efficient operator

Although Indosat remains the second largest telecommunications operator in the country, it is less efficient and less productive than its peers. Indosat is ranked second in terms of revenues share and market share yet its productivity per subscriber and EBITDA margin are lower than the comparable figures of Telkomsel and XL. Indosat's revenues per subscriber are only Rp396k per year, or below the industry average of Rp430k per year. And in FY11, Indosat's EBITDA margin was 45.7%, lower than either Telkomsel's 56.8% or XL's 49.0%. To address this issue, Indosat has put in place a voluntary retirement program which the company expects to lead to a normalized EBITDA of 48.1%. All in all, Indosat has 55Mhz of bandwidth, similar to Telkomsel's, but shared among only 51.7mn subscribers compared to Telkomsel's 107mn subscribers. While XL only has bandwidth of 25Mhz, it is used by 46mn subscribers, indicating greater efficiency in fixed cost components.

KRAS, Rekomendasi beli.

Krakatau Steel



Steel good



Due to higher costs, KRAS's earnings dipped 4% YoY to Rp1,023 bn in FY11. These higher costs owed mainly to higher prices of raw materials, namely iron ore pellets and slabs, which together accounted for almost 45% of the total cost of revenues. Looking forward, the outlook looks brighter. Besides the resumption of production at the HSM Plant last year, the Direct Reduction Plant and the Slab Steel Plant which are being refurbished this year should mean the company can produce more steels. Costs should also be more manageable thanks to additional sponge iron production at its Meratus Jaya Joint Venture and better utilization of the Direct Reduction Plant. Against this backdrop, we revise up our FY12 EPS estimate by 20% to Rp61.7, incorporating the updated timeline for the projects, the latest raw material and steel prices, in addition to setting a new risk free rate of 8.5% compared to 9% previously. BUY maintained with a TP of Rp 950, implying FY12-13 PE of 15.13-14.43x.



Stable revenues expected

FY11 revenues from the sale of steel products were up 18% YoY at Rp 16,235bn, supported by higher blended selling prices which rose 11% YoY. Note that the sale of steel products account for the bulk of the company's total revenues (94% on average in the last five years). Looking forward, production should increase as the 2.4mtpy capacity HSM Plant resumed operations in April 2011 and the Direct Reduction Plant and Slab Steel Plant are expected to fully operate (completion rate of 96.7% and 82.1%, respectively, as of February 2012). However, we only expect a small 3% YoY increase in the sales revenues of steel products to Rp 16,748bn in FY12 since steel prices are expected to be lower. In our estimate, the sales volume will increase by 3% in FY12, lower than the company's estimate of 8%-12%. As for prices, we anticipate the blended price to be 3% lower YoY (the average YTD price of HRC is currently 13% lower than it was in the corresponding period of last year).



Manageable costs will support margins

The additional production of sponge iron at Meratus Jaya, its JV with ANTM, should fully commence in 2Q12, whilst the company's recently refurbished Direct Reduction Plant will be running more productively. As a result, iron ore pellets consumption is expected to decline by 16% this year. We assume an iron ore pellets average selling price for FY12-13 of US$239-238 /ton, or slightly higher than last year's US$232/ ton. We also expect steelmaking cash costs to decline to US$739 715 /ton from US$746 /ton in FY11. With the costs manageable, we forecast the EBITDA margin to improve to 10.7% in FY12. All in all, we expect net earnings to reach Rp 975bn in FY12, or 5% lower YoY since no additional gains on the transfer of fixed assets are expected this year.



Strategic projects are showing good progress

The construction stage for the Blast Furnace Project shall begin in June 2012 and be completed by 2014. The estimated construction cost is above US$500million. With the Blast Furnace as part of its production plant, the company plans to use 70% imported sinter seed and the remaining 30% domestic iron ore. This should translate into more stable prices. The company estimates US$50/ton lower costs. Meanwhile, the land preparation for the Krakatau POSCO JV shall reach its completion stage (an estimated 91.8% at the end of 2012). As of February 2012, the construction stage had reached 13.4%. Commercial operation is expected by 2014. Other infrastructure developments include port development and power plant development with expected completion by 2013. Funding should not be a problem, we believe, since net gearing stood at 36.52% in 2011, meaning the company has room to leverage its balance sheet to fund capex.

SGRO Berada di Support 3450

SGRO berdasarkan rekomendasi @ The Benjamin sebelumnya adalah Buy dengan target price 4200. Disini saya mencoba melihat secara tehnikalnya bahwa SGRO saat ini sudah berada level support I di 3450, yang berarti memiliki peluang rebound dengan target resisten I di 3675 dan resisten II di 4025. tapi apabila kembali turun maka level support II di 3250-3350.

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SGRO Buy

Sampoerna Agro



Better productivity set to continue



Higher CPO sales volume

Revenues increased by 35.9% to Rp 3.1tn in FY11 - in line with our estimate and the consensus. This was thanks to the higher sales volume of CPO (up 22.1%) and higher ASP (up 10.5%). Yet despite the strong sales volume growth, earnings only increased by 19.8%, or below our forecast and the consensus, due to surging costs. On a quarterly basis, revenues fell 22.4% to Rp 625bn in 4Q11 while net profits dipped 31.4% to Rp 73bn as CPO sales volume dropped 17.7% and ASP declined 5.9%. Given the company's relatively young profile of its nucleus estates (8 years vs. 14 years for plasma) and some 13,600 ha of newly mature areas, we envisage the CPO production to reach 394k tons this year.



Margins squeezed

FY11's margins were lower due to: 1) the higher plasma portion that accounted for about 69% of the total COGS, 2) increasing labor costs, both in terms of the number of workers and higher wages, and 3) infrastructure improvements, Rp 30bn higher than in the previous year. With the COGS surging 41.7% to Rp 2tn, the gross margin declined 2.6% to 33.8%, resulting in 2011 gross profits of Rp 1.06 tn. The opex to sales ratio also increased. It rose to 9.9% due to higher export taxes, almost four times higher than in the previous year. This year, we expect margins to be fairly resilient as the company's higher plasma proportion means the company will be less affected by lower expected CPO prices despite the higher fertilizer and labour costs.



Best performance since IPO

Last year was the best year for SGRO since IPO. The FFB yield reached its highest level of 20.6 tons/ha, or up from 18.7 tons/ha in 2010. FFB production increased by 21.8% to 1.6 mn tons, supported by the higher OER and KER of 21.3-5.4%, translating into higher CPO and PK production of 355k tons and 91k tons, respectively, an increase of 23.1-22.4% YoY. The better yield profile reflects a sounder management strategy for its estates. In terms of the FFB contribution, Sumatra accounted for the bulk (83% of total FFB), but the production growth was actually higher in Kalimantan at 35.8% yoy vs Sumatra at 14.2% yoy.



Ramping up the expansion

New plantings reached 5,207ha in 2011. Looking ahead, the company's target of 50k ha of new plantings in 2014 looks difficult to achieve in our view. Rather, we forecast new plantings to remain about the same as this year's level of around 5k ha from the current unplanted landbank of 54k ha. At the same time, SGRO also plans to build a new mill in West Kalimantan. The capex will be funded from internal cash and external loans in our view (there is room for the company to take on loans since its net gearing is only 3.4%). Meanwhile, there is good news that the company's sago brand Prima Starch passed BPOM's food safety tests, classifying it as a premium starch product. Nonetheless, sago's contribution is still small at less than 5% of total revenues.



Maintain BUY, TP unchanged

SGRO's 2011 performance was good despite the lower margins. We have incorporated the FY11 results into our forecast and lowered our WACC assumption to 14% to reflect the lower risk free interest rate (8.5%). Given the company's relatively stable margins thanks to a higher plasma portion in addition to solid long term CPO production growth estimated at 12% CAGR FY11-14F, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a TP of Rp 4,200, implying FY12-13 P/E of 13.8-11.7 x. The shares currently trade at 11.3x P/E with 22% potential upside.

EXCL by Danareksa

XL Axiata Strong Headwinds

Downgrade to Neutral

With tight competition and limited market growth in the offing, we downgrade our recommendation to HOLD with a new Target Price of Rp5,200, translating to PER FY12-13 of 12.1-11.2x and EV/EBITDA FY12-13 of 5.3-4.7x. XL Axiata remains the most innovative company in cost control - especially with its network managed service - reflecting its defensive strategy in the face of limited growth opportunities. Data remains the main source of growth going forward.

Data defined strategy

XL Axiata has decided to concentrate on data with billing based on usage which is more profitable. Billing based on usage avoids potential abuse of the network which is usually the case for unlimited package offerings. With relatively moderate usage of the network, XL will be able to offer fair pricing at reasonable quality. For 2012, XL has earmarked about Rp7-8tn for capex of which 60% will be used to improve 3G capacity and coverage. XL sees an investment cost of US$2-3bn to get a decent 3G/data network across Indonesia. As such, we don't expect any slowdown in capex for the next 2-3 years at least.

Cost savings with network managed service

XL was among the first operators to implement a network managed service by Huawei in an effort to raise operating efficiency. Under this agreement, Huawei is responsible for network operations and network field operations which include, among others, elements of network operations, field service and fault maintenance as well as power expenses. Furthermore, Huawei will also be responsible for power and fuel expenses for future roll-out. As such, XL is protected against future cost increases arising from higher fuel and power costs. All in all, this is expected to give XL combined opex and capex savings of about USD150 million and progressively improve margins over the 7 years of the agreement. The arrangement takes effect in April 2012 and will see a transfer of about 1,200 XL employees to Huawei. XL settled payment in 4Q11.

No immediate tower sales

XL does not have any immediate plans to spin off its towers. The company claims to have about 12,000 towers of which one-third are leased and the remained owned by XL. On average, the tenancy ratio is around 1.7-1.8x, whereas maximum capacity should be around 3.5x. As such, XL's towers still offer good potential upside for any new investor. However, XL does not see any immediate need to spin off its towers even though this would increase efficiency. Any future investment by XL will be done on a lease basis. Essentially, we think that XL's reluctance to spin off its towers is because it has yet to find the right buyer willing to pay a high enough price.

Perkembangan Saham Sektor Semen Kuartal I 2012 by Danareksa

Cement Sector Volume 1Q12 Still Strong

Domestic cement demand was buoyant in 1Q12, up 18.2% yoy to 12.5mn tonnes. In March 2012 alone, sales volume reached 4.4mn tonnes, or up 7.8% mom. Growth was fairly evenly distributed and came from both Java and areas out of Java. Nonetheless, Java remains the largest market, accounting for 53.6% of the total demand, reflecting the infrastructure development taking place on the island, the most highly populated in Indonesia. With domestic demand so strong, cement producers have cut back on exports. Looking forward, however, additionally capacity coming on-stream may lead to higher exports provided that the domestic demand is already fulfilled.

Indocement has the capacity

Indocement enjoyed faster-than-industry growth thanks to around 3-4mn tonnes of spare capacity. Among the other cement producers, Semen Gresik fired up its Tuban plant last week, although a trial period will take place before production starts. Effectively, Semen Gresik could have some additional capacity in the second half of this year. As for Holcim, it is lagging the industry growth simply due to constrained capacity. The company performed very well last year but now faces a tough challenge to meet market demand. Going forward, Holcim will have to make sure it retains a presence in different regions as availability remains an important factor. However, this might hit the short-term profitability of the company if it decides to serve the relatively less profitable areas whilst maintaining a strong presence.

Semen Gresik's market share dips below the threshold

Semen Gresik's market share fell below 40% in 1Q12, which is the internal threshold for the company. As such, we might see more aggressive marketing efforts going forward, especially since Semen Gresik has the additional capacity. Indocement, meanwhile, outpaced the market and lifted its market share to 32.5%, while Holcim's market share edged up to 16.1%.

Slight price adjustments

Some of the cement producers indicated minor and selective price adjustments at the beginning of FY12, reflecting increases in the energy cost components. The decision to delay the hike in subsidized fuel prices has eased the cost pressures somewhat although transportation costs still stand to rise if subsidized fuel prices are hiked in the future.

Our top pick is Indocement

We favor Indocement in the sector because it has a lot of spare capacity whilst domestic cement demand remains robust. Semen Gresik, meanwhile, will become more attractive once the company gets additional capacity from its new plants. Holcim, however, will face capacity constraints until 2013 when the new plant is expected to operate.

PTPP Break 680

Pada penutupan perdagangan hari selasa tanggal 17 April 2012, PTPP berhasil break out resisten I di 680, dan tutup di 690, maka kemungkinan PTPP akan melanjutkan ke target selanjutnya di harga 750.

Dislaimer On

contact :

t0f1qse@gmail.com

taufiq@danareksa.com

GTBO another destination TP1800

GTBO touching minor target  pada 1400, almost touch TP 1500,will goes higher TP 1800.

Another target price yang akan GTBO pecahkan TP 1800, dengan volume perdagangan yang tampak stabil GTBO diprediksi akan touching TP 1500 seperti pada posting sebelumnya, dan apabila Touch, maka besar kemungkinan untuk terus menguat pada TP 1800 dan minor target 1700.

Yaahh we’ll wait and see..

 

Buy on 1310 and stop loss 1130

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