United Tractors (UNTR) A challenging year

FY12 sales volume forecast lowered to 9,000 units

Sales of Komatsu rebounded 3% mom to 773 units in May 2012. By sector, the mining accounted for 62% of the total sales volume, followed by the agro (18%), the construction (13%) and the forestry (7%). Komatsu's market share, however, was lower than in 2011 (45% in 5M12 vs 49% in FY11). This owed to the fierce competition in the heavy equipment industry, especially the 20-ton class excavator segment (40% of heavy equipment sales volume and 20% of heavy equipment sales value). On account of this stiff competition, we trim our FY12-13 sales volume forecasts by 5.3-9.6% to 9,000-9,450 units. We feel more comfortable with these numbers, especially since the highest monthly sales so far this year is the 821 units recorded in March. Moreover, the sales volume in the last month of the year, December, is typically low. At the same time, we also foresee lower margins as UT battles the competition through its promotional and financing schemes, although a larger contribution from after-sales services should help support its margins. 

Pama Production strong and expected to be higher in 2H

Pama's mining activities were strong in May, supported by better weather and a stable stripping ratio of 9.2x. Coal production and overburden removal in 5M12 were up by 14.7% and 16.2% yoy, respectively, at 37.4mn tons and 343.1mn bcm (+6% mom and +6% mom, respectively, for May). These figures are in line with our full year estimates of 96mn tons and 887mn bcm, given that 2H production is typically higher than 1H production.

Strong May coal sales volume of 650k tons (+53% mom, +75% yoy)

Coal sales volume surged 53% mom to 650k tons in May 2012, supported by the better weather (at the PNM and TTA coal mines only). YTD sales reached 2.6mn tons (+45.4% yoy), or 40% of our full year forecast of 6.5mn tons. Note that PNM's production surged 156.4% mom in May as UT renewed the contract last month adopting 100% index based pricing. Going forward, we expect a larger contribution from the new coal mines - with production expected to start mid-2012 - to boost the company's coal mining activities.

Maintain BUY, lower TP of Rp 27,300

UNTR's share price has fallen 21% over the past month. Besides the market correction this also reflects weaker sales volume in April and lower market share due to an influx of Chinese-made small-medium sized equipment exacerbated by the tough competition posed by the Hitachi and Kobelco brands. We lower our TP to Rp 27,300, as we reduce our Komatsu sales volume forecast and our long term growth rate to 2% to reflect the stiffer competition and regulatory risk whilst also adjusting for higher COGS in the coal mining division. Our new TP implies FY12-13F PE of 16.6-14.5x and FY12-13F EV/EBITDA of 8.3-7.4x. We believe our valuation is justified by the improving sales volume, upside potential for Pama's production, in addition to growing coal sales volume despite the softening coal prices which are already priced into our model. Currently the shares trade at FY12 PE of 12.9x, or similar to the market valuation. For the stock to reach our TP, the share price must be supported by positive market sentiment.

Jasa Marga (JSMR) May traffic volume

No downturn in traffic 

The toll road network seems busier than ever with total monthly traffic at an all-time high of 101mn vehicles in May 2012 (+5.9% mom, +18.6% yoy). The number is very encouraging as it indicates no slowdown in domestic economy activity. Furthermore, the growth is evenly spread among all sections, suggesting that the economic gains are widespread. Cumulatively, up to May 2012, traffic reached 482.2mn vehicles (+11.8% yoy), translating to almost 4.0 mn vehicles per day. 

Good growth from the newer sections 

The contribution from the newer sections will be important as they carry higher average tariffs per km compared to the older sections. The tariff difference per km could be almost double. Nonetheless, the newer toll roads only represent a small proportion of Jasa Marga's total toll road portfolio. The total length of the toll roads operated after the year 2000 is only 76km - or 14% of the total length of all the toll roads. We expect another 190km of toll roads to be operated in the next 2-3 years. Of the three new sections - BORR, Surabaya Mojokerto and Semarang Solo - only the latter is showing a relatively slow growth rate. 

JORR W2 North still in progress 

We do have high hopes for the last piece of the puzzle, JORR W2 north, which should complete the Jakarta Outer Ring Road as a complete circle. The project has been divided into two stages - stage 1 Kebun Jeruk-Joglo and stage 2 Joglo-Ulujami. Land acquisition has reached 73.8% in stage 1 and 73.3% in stage 2. Jasa Marga aims to complete the land acquisition before the end of the year. Construction has also started. Stage 1 is 22% complete and stage 2 stands at 18.7%. Land acquisition remains the major issue, but Jasa Marga feels confident it can finalize land acquisition deals within the year. 

Maintain BUY 

Positively, Jasa Marga's traffic seems to be unaffected by the ongoing global turmoil. We have not seen any signs of weakness. In our view, the country's inadequate infrastructure is a huge opportunity for Jasa Marga, especially since it has an excellent business model. Nonetheless, we have not seen any acceleration of toll road development since the introduction of the new land bill. Even so, Jasa Marga is keeping up the pace in regard to its toll road development. BUY maintained with a Target Price of Rp6,100.

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) Welcome on board

Commissioning the Floating FSRU

The Nusantara Regas floating terminal (40% owned by PGN) is in place about 15km offshore of North West Java. The unit has begun commissioning and received its first gas delivery in April 2012 from the Bontang gas field. A second LNG delivery is expected at the end of June 2012. The unit is a LNG vessel modified with a regas unit based on open systems that utilize seawater and propane. It is also a self-sustaining unit using part of the LNG to generate power. Full commercial operation can be expected in the next one or two months. The floating unit is operated under Golar Wihelmenson Management. Although PGN has not made public the gas purchase price, the company should, in principle, charge its customers on a cost plus basis.

Floating terminals to help transport gas

The West Java floating terminal is the first floating terminal project in Indonesia. Going forward, such terminals might be the best solution to ensure the demand for gas is met. This is because most of the gas fields are located in the eastern part of Indonesia (East Kalimantan and Papua) whereas the demand mainly comes from PLN and industries that are located in Java and Sumatra i.e. the western part of Indonesia. Building a pipeline is not feasible due to the vast distances involved and because it would have to cross the sea. Demand is growing and the Ministry of Industry estimates gas demand of 5,300 mmscfd coming from sectors such as electricity generation, metals, fertilizer production, petrochemicals and others.

Confusion on the gas price

It seems the recent gas price hikes are likely to be reviewed due to objections from the industrial gas users. The Minister of Energy and Natural Resources held a meeting with the Minister of Industry, the President Director of PGN and industry associations to discuss the recent gas price hikes of 55%. Although the current gas bill is still based on 55% higher gas prices, it appears that the government is trying to meet the wishes of industrial gas users at the expense of PGN's commercial performance. On the one hand, the government insists that PGN needs to increase the gas purchase price but, on the other hand, PGN is seemingly not allowed to pass on the increase in costs to its customers. Furthermore, the increase in the gas purchase price is not being compensated by any volume guarantees. This has resulted in a lot of confusion in the market and created negative sentiment towards PGN shares. Clarification may come soon, however, as the government has stated its intention to resolve the dispute by the end of June 2012.

HOLD reiterated

We maintain our Target Price of Rp3,575. Our calculations already incorporate 55% higher gas prices and take into account the operations of the West Java floating terminal with a one-third utilization rate. HOLD maintained.

Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI) Expanding its wings

Imminent acquisition 

ASRI has agreed to acquire PT Garuda Adhimatra Indonesia ("GAIN"), the owner and operator of the 60.7 hectare Garuda Wisnu Kencana Cultural Park in Bali. ASRI will take an 82% stake in GAIN from PT Multi Matra Indonesia for an investment cost of Rp738 bn. The acquisition is expected to be done in the third quarter of 2012, subject to approval from the authorities and GAIN's shareholder in addition to other customary closing conditions. Through this acquisition, ASRI hopes to expand the geographical scope of its projects and also contribute to the development of Indonesia's tourism sector. Furthermore, ASRI also hopes this project can raise the proportion of its recurring income in the future since it currently stands at a relatively low level (2% of total revenues in 1Q12). 

Still upbeat on marketing sales 

Total marketing sales in the year to May 2012 have reached Rp2,095 bn. This is already 60% of the company's full year estimate and 62% of our full year estimate - a strong number indeed. In this period, the vast majority of the marketing sales (98%) still originated from the Serpong project. For May alone, marketing sales for the Serpong project reached Rp307 bn, of which 77% were for Sutera Sitara Orlanda, the newest sub-cluster launched by ASRI. Looking ahead, ASRI plans to launch another 1-2 clusters for the Serpong project and 2-3 clusters in Pasar Kemis. Given the strong marketing sales so far, we slightly raise our full year target to Rp3.4 T from Rp3.2 T previously. The company, however, maintains its marketing sales forecast at Rp3.5 T. 

Major capex plans 

In our previous report, we mentioned that ASRI plans to spend around Rp2-3 Tn on capital expenditure this year. However, with the acquisition of GAIN, this number has now been bumped up to around Rp3.5-4 tn. A breakdown of the planned capex reveals that Rp1.4 tn is for project acquisition and development; Rp1.4-1.8 tn is for continued land acquisition in Serpong and Pasar Kemis; and the remaining Rp700 bn is for construction. This sizeable amount of planned capex will be funded from internal cash (the company is flush with cash after issuing US$150 mn of senior notes in March 2012). However, for funding the acquisition of GAIN, ASRI will use bank loans that are currently in the process of being arranged. Note that we have not incorporated the GAIN acquisition into our calculations but we still believe it is okay for ASRI to use debt financing since the company remained in a net cash position up to 1Q12. 

TP raised to Rp760 

Adjusting the land price to reflect the current conditions directly lifts the total marketing sales and the company's total NAV for 2012. There is no significant impact on our net profits estimate, however. This is because we have to take into account the issuance of USD$150 mn of senior notes which push up the company's interest expenses. Using a 25% discount to the new total NAV of Rp19,877 bn, we arrive at a new Target Price of Rp760, offering 41% potential upside from the current share price. This TP implies 14.8-11.5x FY12-13F P/E. BUY.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF) A love deal

Love Juice acquisition

Kalbe recently said that it had signed a Conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement (CSPA) to take over Hale International, the producer of a health drink called "Love Juice". The value of the acquisition is Rp100bn - including fixed assets and brand equity. This acquisition bolsters Kalbe's portfolio of health drinks. At the present time, there are a number of health drinks in Kalbe's portfolio, namely Extra Joss (energy drink), Fatigon Hydro (coconut water) and Tipco (fruit and vegetable juice). The last two products (Fatigon Hydro and Tipco) are toll-manufactured and contribute around 4-5% to the company's total revenues.

60% DPR for FY11 earnings

At the last Annual General Shareholders' Meeting (AGM), Kalbe received approval from its shareholders to distribute 60% of its 2011 earnings as dividends, amounting to Rp95 per share. This is higher than our expectation of a 50% DPR. Looking at the current share price of Rp3,950, the 2011 dividend provides a yield of around 2.4%, or higher than the previous yield of only around 1.6%. However, the company's management also indicated that it would revert to a DPR of 50% in future years, explaining that the 60% DPR for FY11 earnings reflected the especially strong performance in that year.

1:5 stock split

Kalbe also received approval from its shareholders at the AGM to split its shares in a ratio of 1:5, increasing the liquidity of the shares and making them more affordable for retail investors. Following the stock split, the number of shares will increase to around 50.8mn shares. The stock split will become effective after the dividends are paid on 17 July 2012.

Still searching for acquisition target

Kalbe has been sitting on huge cash on hands for many years. Having such strong cash on hands, the company is considering expanding its business, organically as well as inorganically. Last year, the company has nearly Rp2tn cash on hands, which should be more than enough to finance its expansion programs. 

Maintain HOLD with a TP of Rp4,050

After adjusting our Risk Free Rate to 8.5% from 9% previously, our Target Price is raised to Rp4,050. The counter currently trades at 2012F P/E of 23.7x. Maintain HOLD.

AISA Pola Cup n Handle

AISA pada penutupan hari senin tanggal 18 Juni 2012 di harga 630, dan jika ditarik chartnya dari bulan Desember 2011 sampai dengan sekarang membentuk pola cup n handle (cangkir dan pegangan) dan pada tanggal 08 Juni 2012 telah break dan mencoba untuk naik dengan target I di 720 dan target II di 970.

Untuk level Support I di 580 dan Support II di 500

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Selamat Sempurna (SMSM) A Lucrative Acquisition

TP raised to Rp2,506, maintain BUY 

Although our sales target remains unchanged, we slightly raise our net earnings forecast because of the acquisition of a 49% stake in PT Hydraxle Perkasa, its sister company. We also adjust our macro assumptions, as well as the debt portion in our WACC calculations (to 40% from 30% previously) and our cost of debt assumption (to 10.5% from 11% previously). Consequently, we raise our Target Price to Rp2,506, implying PER FY12-13 of 15.0-13.3x. The stock currently trades at an attractive valuation of 11.2-9.9x PER FY12-13. BUY maintained. 

New Acquisition: PT Hydraxle Perkasa 

On 1 May, SMSM bought a 49% stake in PT Hydraxle Perkasa (HP), its sister company, which, according to GIAMM, is the largest manufacturer of dump body hoists for trucks in Indonesia. In the transaction, SMSM bought 720,588 shares in HP for Rp 113bn or Rp 157/share. This implies PER FY11 for HP of 7.0x. The HP shares sold to SMSM are entirely new shares. Proceeds raised from the transaction will be used by HP to repay its entire debts of Rp 42bn with the remainder used to fund expansion of its facilities and for working capital. SMSM has the option to buy another 2% stake in HP before 31 December. 

Earnings Boost from the New Acquisition 

SMSM's needs for molds and dies are met by HP. As a result, the acquisition of a 49% stake in HP will guarantee continuity in the supply of molding products. In FY08-11, HP's revenues and net profits grew by CAGR 24.3% and 84.1%, respectively. Looking ahead, with further strong growth anticipated in Indonesia's mining sector, we expect HP's net earnings to show stronger growth. SMSM's share of HP profits shall be incorporated using the equity method. Moreover, the acquisition should also be earnings boosting, we believe, since our estimates for SMSM's net profits in FY12-13-14 are lifted to Rp 240bn-272bn-312bn (or 2-6% higher than our previous forecast). To fund the acquisition, SMSM has obtained a loan facility without collateral from Mizuho Bank. In this regard, we assume SMSM takes on additional loans of Rp 100bn in FY12. Following the acquisition we now forecast SMSM's gearing ratio to increase to 49% (compared to our previous forecast of 30%). 

Generous Final Dividends of Rp50/share 

SMSM has announced a FY11 final dividend of Rp 50/share. This comes after the interim dividend of Rp 50/share. Hence, in total, SMSM shall distribute 72% of its FY11 net profits as dividends to its shareholders - as we had previously forecast. SMSM's final dividend of Rp 50/share offers the shareholders an attractive yield of 2.7% at the current share price. The cum-date will be on 29 June with the dividends paid on 17 July. Reflecting the company's guidelines of delivering sustained dividends growth, we forecast SMSM's dividends per share to grow by 6% CAGR in FY12-14, assuming that interim dividends distributed to shareholders are 50% of the total dividends. This suggests a DPR of around 60% in FY12-14 and a dividend yield in FY12 of 5.7% at the current share price.

Semen Gresik (SMGR) All about expansion

Targeting Vietnam

The management of Semen Gresik has stated its intention of investing in Vietnam - a move which reflects the company's desire to grow inorganically if there are any opportunities. The acquisition would create additional capacity instantly and boost Semen Gresik's cash flows. Vietnam's close proximity to North Sumatra provides good access to Indonesia and to the northern part of Sumatra especially. Nonetheless, the acquisition price remains an important factor. As to the acquisition target, Semen Gresik has yet to disclose any names. It is also too early to determine the potential impact of any such acquisition on Semen Gresik's operations.

Tuban IV in operation

Tuban IV has been running trail operations for the last two months. Although delayed for about 4 months, the project is still within budget. The current production level of the new plant is 3,000 tonnes per day, translating into a utilization rate of 30%. Going forward, the plant's utilization rate will gradually be increased over the next 2-3 months. With the additional capacity coming from Tuban IV, the Tuban facility should have production capacity of 10mn tonnes p.a., thereby increasing the total production capacity to 22.0mn tonnes p.a.

Further expansion plans

The management of Semen Gresik plans to submit new expansion plans to its shareholders at the upcoming AGM. This will allow the company to attain shareholders' approval sooner rather than later. The initial plan is to build two new cement plants in Java and Sumatra. Although the timeline is to add new capacity in 2015-16, construction of new plants could take 36-48 months, meaning the new capacity is ready only in 2018-19. When the new capacity is ready, the current plant should be running at full capacity. Notably, all this expansion is on top of the inorganic growth. In simple terms, if the cement market grows by 6% p.a. - a reasonable assumption - then the cement industry will need to add capacity of 3.0mn tonnes every year - or basically one plant each year. Besides Semen Gresik, the other players in the industry also have plans to raise capacity. Although this is encouraging, the cement companies must be careful in adding capacity at the right time, so as to avoid a sudden oversupply condition.

BUY recommended

In our view, Semen Gresik remains committed to its grand strategy of maintaining market share of 40-45% in the domestic market. To ensure that it meets this goal, the company is actively seeking opportunities to grow - either organically or by making acquisitions. In this way, Semen Gresik hopes to maintain its dominant position in the domestic market. The Vietnam acquisition could help it achieve this target. BUY maintained with a Target Price of Rp13,850.

Jaya Agra Wattie (JAWA) A Distinctive Mix

We initiate coverage on JAWA with a BUY recommendation. We like the company because of: 1) its distinctive mix of revenues from rubber and palm oil, 2) its extensive unplanted land bank of 33k ha, 3) the good growth potential supported by the company's new plantings strategy and 4) the company's sound financial health. The stock currently trades at 8.3x FY12 P/E, a 34% discount to the industry average. Using a DCF valuation method, we set our Target Price at Rp550, implying FY12-13F P/E of 12.8-10.1x, offering 55% potential upside.

A distinctive revenues mix

JAWA has a unique revenues mix compared to other listed plantation companies. This is because rubber dominates its revenues at 63% of the total, while revenues from palm oil are 35% of the total, with the remaining 2% coming from others (coffee and tea). Profitability wise, rubber had the highest gross and net margins at 53% and 40%, respectively, in 2011. By comparison, the gross and net margins of palm oil were 39% and 30%, respectively. Note that rubber and palm oil have different weather performance characteristics. As such, a combination of these two plantations will lead to more stable performance since the company is not dependent on a single commodity.

Rubber provides the majority of the revenues

JAWA has large immature areas, both for rubber and palm oil. Rubber's immature area is 53% of the total rubber planted area of 9.6k ha. On top of this, there is also huge unplanted landbank of 21k ha. As a result, we expect higher rubber production growth in the coming years. Indeed, JAWA is already targeting new plantings of 14.5k ha up to 2014. In our estimates, rubber production will grow by 3-year CAGR of 13% in 2011-14F.

Palm oil to contribute more

Unlike other plantations companies, palm oil accounts for less than 50% of JAWA's total revenues (35% in 2011 or amounting to Rp 224bn). Notably, the immature portion is very large - 72% of the total area vs. an industry average of just 32%. This offers great potential for growth going forward. In this regard, JAWA targets new plantings of 7,000 ha for oil palm up to 2014. Along with the growth in nucleus production, we expect margins to increase since 49% of its COGS are purchases of raw materials (lumps, logs and FFB).

Sound balance sheet

The company's gearing ratio declined to 0.57x in 2011 from 1.32x in 2010. In regard to the planned expansion, we believe the company will be able to take on external loans since its net gearing is relatively low. JAWA has stated its intention of issuing bonds in September 2012. The financial results are now being audited. This will allow JAWA to get a rating from Pefindo. This year's capex is budgeted at Rp490bn for the new plantings and construction of 4 new plants. Furthermore, JAWA distributed some 20% of its 2011 net income as dividends, translating to Rp 9.6/share and implying a 2.7% gross dividend yield.

Metropolitan Land (MTLA) On A Strong Footing

We initiate coverage on Metropolitan Land (MTLA), an Indonesian property company which has a focus on the middle-income segment. We like the company for: 1) its balanced revenues structure between recurring and non-recurring income which helps ensure sustainability, 2) the continued good performance of its residential projects, 3) the company's sound financial conditions which facilitate development. To value this stock, we use a combination of the asset valuation and DCF methods. By applying a 50% discount to NAV, we arrive at a Target Price of Rp550, implying FY12F-13F P/E of 20.8-16.0 x. BUY.

Balanced revenues structure

Revenues from real estate - from residential projects and condotel - accounted for 68.5% of the company's total revenues in 1Q12. All in all, the company is committed to achieving a balanced revenues structure. To this end, the company is developing new commercial assets. This year, for example, the company is constructing the Grand Metropolitan Mall in West Bekasi. Furthermore, in a bid to ride on the growth in Indonesia's burgeoning tourism industry, MTLA plans to build three budget hotels this year. Profitability wise, the gross margin is showing steady improvements as the company achieves a better mix between residential projects and high margin commercial properties.

Expecting strong sales

MTLA is currently developing six middle-segment focused residential projects. Demand for properties in each project remains high (as reflected in the continuously rising land prices). All in all, the company is targeting Rp582 bn in marketing sales from its residential projects in 2012 (30% higher than in 2011) and another Rp68.7 bn from the M-Gold apartment and office that will be launched this year. Our 2012 marketing sales forecast, by comparison, is slightly lower than the company's at Rp616 bn. Since MTLA does not have that much land bank (in comparison to other property companies), the company will keep looking for land plots of 100-200 ha in size to develop its new residential projects.

Good financials shall facilitate development

With several proposed projects, capex is expected to reach Rp965 bn this year. A large amount of the capex will be used to construct Grand Metropolitan Mall. For this mall, some 79% of the total capex required of Rp450 bn will be spent this year. To finance part of this year's capex, the company will use the remaining IPO proceeds. However, given the large amount of capex planned for this year, the company will also need to make use of external funding sources. In this regard, we believe the company may take on around Rp200 bn of bank loans. However, with a net cash position at the end of 2011, we don't think the company will face difficulties in taking on external loans.

Consumer Sector

Limited earnings downside from the weaker Rupiah 

Limited impact from rupiah depreciation

Our discussions with the companies under our coverage strongly suggest that the current Rupiah depreciation will have only a slight impact on earnings. Most of the companies are unconcerned since the impact of the Rupiah depreciation is naturally hedged through time deposits and export revenues. Furthermore, the softer food commodity prices will also help. As such, we foresee limited earnings downside from the Rupiah depreciation and retain our view of potential margins improvement from the downtrend in food commodity prices.

ASP increases to cushion earnings

All of the consumer players under our coverage are planning to increase ASP by 3-5% this year in response to the higher inflation while, at the same time, also enjoying cheaper raw material prices. In our view, higher revenues from exports will naturally offset the potential earnings downside arising from the weaker Rupiah. And although a weakening Rupiah could potentially shave 1% off gross margins, the planned increases in ASP shall help offset the negative impact on earnings.

Imported raw material costs under control

Although most of the raw material costs are USD linked, some of the costs are not directly expose to USD movement. Most of the contracts, for example, are done in IDR with turnover of 2-3 months. Thus, in the case of further adverse developments on the Rupiah, the impact will start to be seen in 4Q. Among the consumer players under our coverage, the pharmaceutical sector is most vulnerable to US dollar strength since around 80% of the raw materials are imported. Nonetheless, the pharmaceutical companies keep on average around 24% of their total cash in US dollars to cover around 5-6 months of raw material purchases. This is a natural hedge against potential currency risk.

Limited USD debt exposure

Most of the companies under our coverage have no major US dollar debt exposure. As such, we believe there is no currency risk in this regard. Here, Indofood reported that USD debt accounts for only around 27% of its total debt as per end of 1Q12, whereas Indofood CBP, the subsidiary, accounted of around 25%. Hence, both companies are in net cash position at the current period.

INDF and MYOR remain our top picks

We continue to favor Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) for its cheap valuation amidst the recent downtrend in stock prices and Mayora Indah (MYOR) for its superior growth.

PGAS On Track

PGAS pada tanggal 06 Juni 2012 ditutup di 3675 yang mana kalau dilihat secara jalur teknikal (garis warna hijau tebal) tetap dalam posisi uptrend. akan tetapi jika dilihat kembali pada chartnya, PGAS ini bergerak lambat karena berada pada posisi bawah bollingger-nya. akan tetapi untuk jangka panjang saham ini masih tetap layak untuk dikoleksi karena masih tetap di jalur uptrend-nya.

Untuk titik Resisten 1 di 4000 dan Resisten 2 di 4250. dan apabila titik Resisten 2 jebol maka dia akan melanjutkan kenaikkan dengan cepat.

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