Sunday, August 26, 2012

CMNP Mengakhiri Downtrend


CMNP setelah 02 bulan mengalami fase bearish, maka mulai minggu lalu mencoba kembali ke fase bullish. pada penutupan hari Jumat tanggal 24 Agustus 2012, CMNP cukup bertahan di area Support 1 yakni 2050. Semoga minggu depan kembali melanjutkan fase bullishnya dengan target di R1 yakni 2175 dan R2 2300.

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ASGR Sideways Menguat

ASGR sebagai salah satu anak perusahaan Asra memiliki kecendrungan tiap tahun terus tumbuh walau perlahan. Pada penutupan hari jumat tanggal 24 Agustus 2012 ASGR berada di 1320 (naik 10 point), ASGR telah 02 bulan ini sideways dengan kecendrungan menguat. Dimana ASGR cukup bertahan di area Support 1 1290 dan berusaha menyentuh level Resistance 1 di 1380.

Rekomendasi BOW at 1290 or buy if break 1380 with high volume

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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

PGAS Akan Turun Dulu


Setelah beberapa hari ini PGAS mencoba untuk melewati level 3825, maka pada penutupan hari Selasa tanggal 07 Agustus 2012 ditutup turun menjadi 3725 (-50). Dan kemungkinan saham ini akan turun dulu dengan target di 3625 (S1) dan apabila makin turun maka lakukan sell on strength dengan level selanjutnya di 3425 (S2)

Untuk Resisten 1 di 3825 dan Resisten 2 di 4150

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AISA Tertahan Di Area Support

AISA pada penutupan hari Selasa tanggal 07 Agustus 2012 ditutup di 670 (Support I) dan telah 04 hari tertahan di area tersebut. Ada kemungkinan saham ini sudah cukup tertahan dan bisa jadi dalam minggu ini akan kembali dalam trend naiknya dengan target di 770 (R1) dan apabila terlewati maka target selanjutnya di 940 (R2).

Apabila level 670 jebol, maka bersiap - siap untuk melakukan sell on strength dengan target selanjutnya di 570 (S2)

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Thursday, August 2, 2012

Garuda Indonesia (GIAA IJ, BUY) Soaring to new heights


We initiate coverage on GIAA, Indonesia's state-owned airlines company  with a BUY recommendation. We like the company for several reasons. First, GIAA is making efforts to maintain its growth momentum through effective strategic positioning and global linking by joining Sky Team. Secondly, GIAA's revenues performance is steadily improving. And thirdly, its newly-separated entity (Citilink) shall provide a stable revenues stream to GIAA. We value the company at Rp900/share, implying 2012-13F Adj. EV/EBITDAR of 5.6-4.7x. GIAA's shares currently trade at 5.0x Adj. EV/EBITDAR.

Maintaining its Growth Momentum

Thanks to strong economic growth in Indonesia, the overall number of domestic budget and business travelers has grown by 4- year CAGR 11% while the figure for international travelers is 13%. Focusing on the full service (FSC) market, GIAA is adopting effective strategies such as positioning itself in the high density and low yield market via Citilink, as well as serving the low density and high yield market through its new CRJ 1000 NG aircraft. In our view, this should allow GIAA to capture higher market share and allow the company to leverage on higher capacity. For the international market, more Boeing 777 aircraft are expected to be delivered by FY13 in order to offer direct international flights. Taking everything into consideration, consolidated Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) is estimated to reach 36,274 mn km and 44,186 mn km in FY12-13. Furthermore, GIAA will also seek to maintain its growth momentum by joining Sky Team by FY14.

Healthy Revenues Growth

The government has implemented price capping since FY10 to protect public interests in domestic air transport. The impact, however, for GIAA is not significant and the margin per ASK has still improved even with higher jet fuel prices paid. Encouragingly, yields have expanded even with a higher passenger load factor. The EBITDAR has grown steadily. In FY11, the operating profits reached US$115 million after a loss of around US$7 million in FY10. Going forward, we expect revenues to grow further. This should help lift operating profits to around US$ 220 million in FY12 and US$ 240 million in FY13, in our estimates.

Spreading Its Citilink Wings

Citilink is now an independent entity following the acceptance of the Air Operation Certificate (AOC) given by the Ministry of Transportation on 5 July 2012. The brand will serve the segmented LCC market with 8 daily routes from the airline's hubs to Batam, Banjarmasin, Denpasar, Balikpapan, Medan and Makasar. Going forward, Citilink is expected to provide a stable revenues stream to GIAA with the introduction of A320-200 using the LCC configuration supported by GIAA's long-standing experience in the airlines sector. This will help Citilink to post higher passenger revenues, rising an estimated CAGR 96% over 2 years, in our view.

ASGR Masih Berpeluang Menguat

ASGR penutupan hari Rabu 01 Agustus 2012 ditutup di 1310 (turun 10 poin). kalau dilihat dengan menggunakan fibonanci, maka ASGR lagi sideways antara titik 61,8% - 100%.

Jika hendak melakukan Buy dapat dilakukan di 1260 (S1) dan jika mau menunggu dapat masuk apabila telah melewati 1380 (R1) dengan target 1600 (R2). Cut loss apabila break melewati 1110 (S2)

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